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   Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 (jeffcliff@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:14:28 JST Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧
   > a good use of the successful use of bootstrapping method is a formula devised by gustafson, tianen, and greist 1981 which predicts suicide attempts in psychiatric patients on the basis of variables that can be assessed in clnical interviews(such as the extent of suicide plans and degree of isolation from other people). The predictions are more accurate than those holistically by the judges.
   
   making the #10ideas50years videos i think it was #7 that dealt with this stuff, but at the time i didn't internalize what it meant as deep as #thinkinganddeciding as going -- generally automating judgement *at all* by coming up with formulas that describe how the judgement actually works increases accuracy, and that it just isn't determining mentally ill/schizophrenic patients where 'judging' situations leads to inconsistent and just plain bad judgement
   
   #thinkinganddeciding
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     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 (jeffcliff@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:21:42 JST Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧

     in reply to
     @jeffcliff this also is a shot across the bow of everyone who complains about people "doing their own research" and leading themselves astray
     
     > Dawes(1979) describes a number of cases in which such an equal weighting method has been used with apparent success. In those cases which the question can be asked, the equal-weighting model did better than the judge by himself. So great is the judge's unreliability that *we can do better than the judge(in most cases) by knowing only which variables ar erelevant*.
     
     #thinkinganddeciding
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     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 (jeffcliff@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:23:44 JST Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧

     in reply to
     @jeffcliff
     
     @jeffcliff
     
     i think the real difference between now and #thinkinganddeciding is that back when this book was written, it was taken for granted that the basic "points assigning" and "weighted" busy work was best done by human beings , imperfectly or otherwise
     
     but this is exactly the kind of work that significant progress in the past 30 years has been made on automating
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     Sick Sun (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:24:48 JST Sick Sun

     in reply to
     @jeffcliff everyone is absolutely obligated to do their own research
     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 likes this.
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     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 (jeffcliff@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:44:29 JST Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧

     in reply to

     • Vo
     @Vo
     
     @jeffcliff #thinkinganddeciding is an argument otherwise; that whatever shitshow the DSM might be, it's better than having no DSM-like book, and the way to improve it is to refine the rules in cases where they produce inconsistent/nonsensical/broken outcomes.
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     Vo (vo@noauthority.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:44:30 JST Vo

     in reply to

     @jeffcliff most just follow the DSM which has been a shitshow since its inception

     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 likes this.
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     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 (jeffcliff@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:47:20 JST Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧

     in reply to

     • Vo
     @jeffcliff
     
     ...at least @Vo gets how immediately controversial this kind of thing is though
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     Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧 (jeffcliff@shitposter.world)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 09:00:02 JST Jeff "never puts away anything, especially oven mitts" Cliff, Bringer of Nightmares 🏴‍☠️🦝🐙 🇱🇧🧯 🇨🇦🐧

     in reply to
     @jeffcliff it does provide a counterexample (laziness in determining which variables are worth considering) and there is another one - the kind of 'schrodinger-like' error introduced where you change the system by observing it, esp of humans