Conversation

The escalating minimum.

How I’ve always described the Western support received by Ukraine.

Ukraine is the European dream and so attacking it is attacking the soul of Europe. Europe simply cannot let Ukraine fall and will do the absolute bare minimum to keep it up. Russia cannot accept losing either, so it will keep upping the ante to overwhelm the current state, hoping for the West to back out or be corrupted out.

So it’s a strength test. Ukrainian troops outmatch Russia’s, no problem there despite numbers. Economically, Italy 🇮🇹, an EU mid-table, is stronger than Russia on its own. Russia cannot win and this is why I have always been, and remain, confident that #Ukraine will win.

Sadly however, there is a big emotional gap between not letting Ukraine lose and the logically obvious Ukraine must win. So in government policy, the minimum continues.

However, Russia just escalated with a potential game changing supply of cruise missiles from Iran. So right now, the West is working out if they need to raise their minimum. They may not do so if they feel they don’t need to. I’m hoping they do.

Even though we are telegraphing any use of long range strikes, Russia is so bad at war, it might still provide a surprise attack. Even if not, it would be good to take the inhibitor off.

So that is where we are and what is going on.

Slava Ukraini