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   Jamez Barrett 🜃 ॐ Ⓐ (didgebaba@c.im)'s status on Monday, 30-Mar-2026 10:35:38 JST Jamez Barrett 🜃 ॐ Ⓐ

   J.P. Morgan’s supply-chain mapping suggests the last pre-disruption Persian Gulf cargoes hit South-East Asia, South Asia and East Africa by about 1 April, Europe by about 10 April, and the US by about 15 April. Australia's is due by 20 April... after those dates, the absence of replenishment becomes much harder to hide.

   The Strait of Hormuz disruption is not just about crude. Analysts and logistics reporting say it also hits LNG, LPG, petrochemicals, methanol, plastics feedstocks and helium, which means the pain doesn’t stop at the bowser. It runs through manufacturing, freight, construction inputs, chemicals and tech supply chains as inventories thin out.

   So the sequence is roughly this:

   First, people panic locally.
   Then wholesalers and retailers start paying up to secure supply.
   Then inventories that were already on the water get delivered.
   Then the pipeline starts running dry.
   That is when the shock stops being a story for traders and shipping nerds and starts becoming obvious to everyone else.

   Australia sits in that early wave. The map’s timing lines up with reports that parts of Asia have already been scrambling for replacement cargoes, with even unusual US Gulf Coast-to-Australia distillate routes being used to plug gaps.

   And if the disruption drags on, this stops being about “higher prices” and becomes about allocation.

   Who gets fuel.
   Who pays more.
   Which industries keep moving.
   Which ones start slowing, rationing, or passing costs straight through to households.

   Barclays says that the Hormuz disruption could remove 13 - 14 million barrels a day from global supply, while Kpler says cumulative losses could exceed 400 million barrels by mid-April if flows don’t normalise.

   So yes, shortages so far have been partly behavioural... fear, stockpiling, domestic scrambling.
   But the actual physical supply problem has yet to come.

   For our part of the world, the cliff edge is very close. By mid-April, the “surely they’ll sort it out” phase gives way to the “oh, this is real” phase. Europe follows. The US later, but still not immune, especially through price rather than outright physical scarcity.

   In other words... the panic buying is the opening act.
   The real show starts when the ships stop arriving.

   From The Gerk https://substack.com/@snarkygherkin/note/c-234844710?utm_source=notes-share-action

   #IranWar

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   goatsarah (goatsarah@thegoatery.dyndns.org)'s status on Saturday, 21-Mar-2026 22:12:21 JST goatsarah

   Just seen someone saying they support bans on trans healthcare for under 18s because “let kids be kids”.

   By the time I hit puberty, I had KNOWN for a decade.

   I also knew that telling anyone would be profoundly dangerous.

   So I hid who I was and, am almost grateful that the neurodivergence gave the other kids something else to latch on to. They were so busy calling me a “mong” that they didn’t notice I was trans.

   Because that might have got me murdered.

   Or pushed me into a position where I felt I had no options other than the same end result.

   So I hid it.

   And I hid it really well.

   And one of the things that happens when a 5 year old child is terrified of their parents, or their families, or the school bullies finding out who they really are is that they end up traumatised.

   A 5 year old child. Traumatised and ashamed.

   Ashamed because adults openly talked about them.

   Or people like them.

   And what they said was horrific. What they said made it very clear that they would regard their own kids as subhuman monsters if they ever found out.

   So we hid. And an important part of ourselves died in childhood. A light that should have shone, went out.

   I’ve tried my best to rekindle it.

   I’ve managed somewhat but it will never be right. Not really. I’ve made peace with that.

   “Let kids be kids”. Trans kids like me never got to be.

   Because of people who say things like that.

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   WikiPathways (wikipathways@fosstodon.org)'s status on Thursday, 19-Mar-2026 23:23:42 JST WikiPathways

   hi, scrapers have been crawling the classic website for more than half a year now. We are trying to keep it at manageable levels, but our options are running out.

   So, right now, we had to enable the "under attack" mode of @cloudflare

   This likely breaks the webservice... but we first need to get the system to recover a bit more before we can further tweak anti-AI-crawlers.

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   Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io)'s status on Monday, 16-Feb-2026 05:34:15 JST Paul Cantrell

   in reply to

   @griotspeak I think often of a story my composer friend Todd Harper told of the days when he taught 4th grade.

   He brought in a piece music every day to play for the kids — widely varied in style, origin, and era, almost always something unfamiliar to them.

   One day he brought in an Erik Satie march that they all •hated•. It’s a sort of wildly repetitive and maddening, bores its way into your brain, and the kids flipped out.

   So he started playing it again every day.

   2/

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   Ika Makimaki (pezmico@mastodon.nz)'s status on Thursday, 08-Jan-2026 14:18:12 JST Ika Makimaki

   Twitter used to be the place where things like today's events in Minnesota would spark social movements on the streets.

   Xitter is now, (and probably because of this) as you all know, a cesspool of AI slop, deepfake porn adjacent material and even CSAM. Social movements and minorities are systematically shut down and their reach limited, drowning them out.

   So maybe some people will come looking for an alternative, maybe they will post things that upset you, maybe they won't use the CW you want or the hashtags that would be appropriate.

   Maybe we should tolerate some temporary discomfort so that social movements can organise and grow organically, outside of corporate networks.

   Maybe scolding people into posting The Correct Way™ is not the main priority in these moments.

   Maybe.

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   Kiernian (kiernian@infosec.exchange)'s status on Tuesday, 15-Jul-2025 23:35:18 JST Kiernian

   in reply to

   @JessTheUnstill @dannotdaniel Smart TVs drive me almost as batty as smart phones. Low lifespan, underpowered, bloaty garbage that does weird things with DNS from brand to brand.

   When smart TVs first started being slightly more available than regular TVs, I rebelled pretty hard and went to "Monitor + PC + DVD drive".

   I caved for a year and change in 2018, angrily reverted to a PC+monitor solution again for 4 more years, caved once more a year ago, again for simplicity's sake, and am currently planning on switching when these 5+ year old used smart TVs I have finally burn out.

   So far the only thing that makes the PC+Monitor solution lackluster by comparison is the fact that the interface is designed around mouse+keyboard, not a remote. I can create individual desktop browser shortcuts to each specific streaming service easily enough, but navigating while laying in bed or curled up on the couch snuggling sucks compared to smart TVs. Not even conference room "presentation" peripherals are quite the same as a TV remote.

   Smart TVs keep getting more invasive and less robust, and Roku has been talking about injecting ads over HDMI regardless of what's connected to what for years now but honestly, I don't want a modern smart TV for the same reason I don't want a mid-range smartphone or a home grade router. They're underpowered for any period of use greater than about 2 years. I chose the phone I got last year solely because it has 12 gigs of RAM. I would have ditched the smart TV in the bedroom sooner because the wireless radio in it is such utter garbage that I wouldn't put it in an IoT thermostat, but instead I put in an additional subnet and stood up a whole piece of infrastructure for a single extra AP because it was CHEAPER (wtf?).

   I'd like to see someone release a truly usable model of smart TV that has a full "business laptop grade" wireless radio with antenna wires that aren't nestled up next to the power molex, the functional equivalent of an i5 6th or 7th gen, 16 gigs of ddr4 2133ghz RAM, and a cheap 256gb SSD but despite that being the specs on a $100 computer on amazon these days I doubt we'll see anything like it on TVs, or even any improvement, because if consumers see that these things CAN perform better than nearly everything currently does, I suspect lots of people will quit buying off of the revolving carousel of lowest common denominator disposable black Friday deals they're currently shelling out for, and how would the landfills curb their appetite then?

   This topic incenses me because things COULD be SO much better and at not that much extra cost to the consumer, but then they'd last longer and that'd cut into the continuous rise of quarterly profits.