Paul Cantrell
This. What @NZedAUS said.
It’s important to recognize — and please take a moment to let this sink in — that if the hostages all return home and the war ends, that is a •disaster• for Netanyahu.
The hostages and the war are the only thing keeping him afloat right now. Without them, he’s sunk. His back is to the wall. He •needs• this ongoing disaster to survive. And he’s willing to sacrifice anyone and anything — except himself — to prolong it. https://mastodon.nz/@NZedAUS/113065656738049256
Paul Cantrell
This is why — and I’m going to catch some hate in the replies for this, but so be it — this is why it really rankles me when people feel the need to center •US• politicians in every single damned post about Netanyahu’s ongoing campaign of genocide.
Yes, yes, the Biden admin have up to this point grossly underutilized what leverage they have. I just think you all grossly underestimate how much leverage that really is.
Paul Cantrell
These massive demonstrations in Israel right now give me hope. •That• is what can end this genocide.
For all the imperialist power of the US, for all the idealism of the UN, for all that every one of us worldwide aches for justice, this genocide ultimately ends in one place and one place only: internal Israeli politics.
More power to the protests. Long may they last.
David Andersen
@inthehands I think you might have meant to say "overestimate"?
Paul Cantrell
@dave_andersen ach, yes, thx
Paul Cantrell
@distractal
No, not seen as hate, and understood. But that’s blended into somehow imagining that the whole war is the Biden admin’s fault, which is a direct route to choices that are extremely harmful.
distractal
@inthehands Ultimately you're right, and it is heartening to see.
I hope the sentiment shown in Israeli polls and surveys I saw a few months after 10/7 changes.
WRT to your 2nd toot, one of the levers of power we are able to pull is to apply pressure to Biden and his administration to do obvious things like stop weapons shipments.
We have no lever in Israel.
That's why many of us are focused here.
I have no way to influence things in Israel.
I hope you won't see this as hate.
Paul Cantrell
@distractal
Re the specific strategy of stopping weapons shipments: I wish the US would, but (1) that wouldn’t stop the war, it’s a fantasy to imagine it could, and (2) it would very likely throw the US election to a fascist who would remove any and all pressure against Netanyahu. Call for it anyway, yes, because it’s the right thing to do — but don’t lose sight of the sad political reality here, and for heaven’s sake don’t make that the electoral red line that ends US democracy.
distractal
@inthehands I don't have any pretenses that stopping weapons shipments will immediately stop the genocide, but it could certainly influence things in that direction. I'm not sure I agree with your second point, as many folks said the same thing about Biden stepping down.
I do know that Gen Z and many Millenials in particular are STRONGLY initiated into the Israeli/Palestine situation and the Biden administration seems to think they don't matter, which could be as catastrophic as you mention.
Paul Cantrell
@distractal
Re young voters: Half of the solution is the Biden admin taking visible, concrete action to end the genocide, which they’re just now starting to do in ways they should have done months ago.
The other half of the solution is not convincing young voters that things that •will not happen• not happening is a sign that they are unheard.
Misuse Case
@inthehands Israel’s economy has contracted by 1/3 and they have mass protests going on daily as well as IDF officers saying they can’t keep up the campaign, some soldiers defecting….and it’s not enough to end the bloodshed and chaos because of how desperate Netanyahu is.
Cutting off weapons shipments to him would not end all this as soon as people think, and he might just go get weapons from China or Russia or something. I’m sure they’d be eager suppliers.
Paul Cantrell
@MisuseCase
Exactly. What external levers we have are not about pressuring Netanyahu himself, but about ramping up anti-Netanyahu pressure within Israel.
Paul Cantrell
@geos @distractal
Yes to all that, and thank you for (1) correctly identifying Netanyahu & Hamas in that list at the end, instead of incorrectly including all of Israel & Palestine, and (2) including Putin, who is too often forgotten as a party with a vested interest in this conflict continuing.
George Saich
@distractal @inthehands
Stopping weapons to Israel sounds simple, but think about is what happens next. What would Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and Israel do then? Example: Could Netanyahu be provoked to use nukes? If you know, you should be working for the State Dept or Pentagon as a strategist, because that is what they are wrestling with. They have played out all the scenarios and we are where we are because nothing works better. Netanyahu, Putin, Trump, & Hamas, want this - no one else.
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