@feld, is there a possibility that Oban behavior has changed between versions 2.13.4 and 2.17.9 that could break Pleroma's federation (version update commit: dbf29cba)? This commit is in the 03024318..9953b0da commit range from mint and also before the commit in the issue on Gitlab.
I have a test instance that now runs on that commit to see if it will break. If it doesn't break this week, I'll slowly bisect the commit range.