Public
- Public
- Network
- Groups
- Featured
- Popular
- People

Conversation

Notices

Embed this notice
Democrats Abroad (democratsabroad@mastodon.social)'s status on Wednesday, 03-Jul-2024 06:57:37 JST Democrats Abroad

Dr. Allan Lichtman's 13 presidential keys.
If the incumbent party can answer YES to SEVEN or more of these questions, the incumbent party wins.
Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 out of 10 of the last presidential elections w/this system. His one miss was 2000, which, let's face it, was an outlier. His system did align with the popular-vote outcome then.
Here's the point. #Biden currently checks SEVEN Lichtman boxes.
Thank goodness we're not changing horses in mid-stream!
AND WE'RE NOT.
In conversation about 5 months ago from mastodon.social permalink
Attachments
1. 1. The incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election. 2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent- party nomination. 3. The incumbent-party candidate is the current prosident. 4. There is no significant third-party or indopondent candidacy. 5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign. 6. Real (constant-doliar) per copita economic growth during the term equals or excoeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. 7. The administrabon has eMected maor policy changes during the term. 8. There has been no major social unrest during the term. 9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 10. There has been no major military or foreign policy fallure during the term. 11. There has been a major miltary or foreign policy success during the term. 12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. 13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a naticnal hero. W six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.
  https://files.mastodon.social/media_attachments/files/112/719/108/283/899/364/original/63fc554c6f515030.png

Public

Conversation

Notices

Feeds