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1. The incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election. 2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent- party nomination. 3. The incumbent-party candidate is the current prosident. 4. There is no significant third-party or indopondent candidacy. 5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign. 6. Real (constant-doliar) per copita economic growth during the term equals or excoeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. 7. The administrabon has eMected maor policy changes during the term. 8. There has been no major social unrest during the term. 9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 10. There has been no major military or foreign policy fallure during the term. 11. There has been a major miltary or foreign policy success during the term. 12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. 13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a naticnal hero. W six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.