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  1. Embed this notice
    Andrew Lokenauth (fluentinfinance@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:28 JST Andrew Lokenauth Andrew Lokenauth

    Tip for people in their 20s:

    A 24-year-old only needs to invest $100/ week to have a $1 Million portfolio by age 55 (in an S&P 500 index fund).

    If you wait until 30 to start, you will make $400,000 less.

    If you wait until age 40, you make $800,000 less.

    Time is your biggest asset. Use it to your advantage.

    In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:28 JST from mastodon.social permalink
    • Embed this notice
      Blurry Moon (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:26 JST Blurry Moon Blurry Moon
      in reply to
      • feld
      • bloomtime!
      @feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish we're in a bubble right so even before climate change we're looking at trouble...
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:26 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:27 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to

      @FluentInFinance tip for people in your 20s:

      The modern financial market is inextricably tied up in mortgages based on housing that will lose value as the climate changes. The more the climate changes, the less trustworthy the financial markets are.

      We're in for decades of 2008-2010 markets as the suburbs and exurbs become uninsurable while they also suffer more frequent disasters.

      Don't depend on the conditions and climate of the past or take the suggestions that create the problem.
      Learn something useful for our changing climate, you'll always be able to get paid.

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:27 JST permalink
      Blurry Moon likes this.
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:27 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance finally some good finance posts on this platform
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:24:27 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:31:45 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @sun @feld @FluentInFinance climate change has already begun. We're well into the 'how bad will it be' set of choices now.

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:31:45 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      Blurry Moon (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:31:45 JST Blurry Moon Blurry Moon
      in reply to
      • feld
      • bloomtime!
      @thesquirrelfish @feld @FluentInFinance yeah that is true, I chose words poorly.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:31:45 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      Blurry Moon (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:40:59 JST Blurry Moon Blurry Moon
      in reply to
      • feld
      • bloomtime!
      @feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish give me tangible investment advice
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:40:59 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:41:00 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish also dumping money into index funds is the opposite of good advice; it's a trend that exists because the average person doesn't have the knowledge or time to invest properly and we lost pensions as a standard pillar of our retirement (most 401ks are balls deep in index funds with maybe a sprinkling of bonds because most people don't understand bonds either. Note, the 60/40 diversification recommendation is dead; do not fall for that trap in the current economy).

      So this makes index funds incredibly overweight and creates the toppling giants in the American economy that everyone hates. All your retirement money is being sent to the big tech companies you hate. They're literally gambling with your future by providing the funding for the Next Big Tech Thing, the surveillance of us all, etc etc, through your retirement portfolio.

      Huh, so what's going to happen to everyone's retirement portfolios when the massive bubble pops and the recession takes hold? Oopsy, the entire middle class is gonna get wiped out because they had no idea that their Easy-Mode investment plan of blindly dumping 8% of their paycheck into an index fund managed by the hedgies would disintegrate before their very eyes when reality hits the markets.

      Index funds providing the returns they've managed to do since ~2008 is an anomaly, not the rule. Those funds have only grown bigger and bigger since the great recession and have set unrealistic expectations fueled by ZIRP.

      The Red Candles are coming.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 00:41:00 JST permalink

      Attachments


      1. https://media.bikeshed.party/pleroma/a2561fa78230d470d52e9cc656d9dc27bebb799c1502a91cb0ec5dcf39563236.png
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:06:13 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish I'd also recommend REITs when the real estate market returns to normal. Then you can make money off real estate without having to own the whole property.

      Also this is considered evil by many but you gotta do what you gotta do in this economic climate
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:06:13 JST permalink
      Blurry Moon likes this.
    • Embed this notice
      Blurry Moon (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:06:14 JST Blurry Moon Blurry Moon
      in reply to
      • feld
      • bloomtime!
      @feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish thanks, I'm old now so I'm in a different category than OPs advice.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:06:14 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:06:15 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @sun @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish

      short term: T-Bills, bitcoin, other inflation protected assets. Try to have cash available when the crash happens.

      long term: invest in critical industries. Oil, energy, water, healthcare. When the market crashes then it will be your time to scoop up cheap stocks of companies you want to speculate on and bonds which will be pennies on the dollar: municipal bonds of hot cities, corporate bonds of key players that won't go away like grocery chains (Krogers, some tech behemoths like AAPL, etc)

      Otherwise for now try to find stocks that pay dividends. They will help you weather the volatility of the market.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:06:15 JST permalink
      Blurry Moon likes this.
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:07:15 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @sun @feld @FluentInFinance help people! Esp. young people. Help someone become a nurse, a construction worker, a childcare worker, an electrician, a solar installer, a home health aid, a disaster remediation expert. Help neighbors & help stop displacement - we need to see the changes to make good choices.
      Invest in ADUs & local grocers & bike shops & anything that contributes to sustainable neighborhoods - local jobs, local people, local connections. Repair shops & quality second hand stores. We need more buses & shuttles particularly from cities to places like campgrounds and parks and such during appropriate seasons and holidays(also in other local contexts but you'd have to do the research). Intimate connections with nature like hunting, fishing, CSAs, CSFs, farmstands, and farmers markets. Co-op and worker owned businesses. Community land trusts.

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 01:07:15 JST permalink
      Blurry Moon likes this.
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:11:58 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @feld @FluentInFinance @sun I don't think there will be a return to normal

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:11:58 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:11:58 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun no, not to what we considered to be "normal". That's over.

      But we need like an 80% retraction in the markets, especially real estate. Maybe not 80% everywhere else in the economy, but that correction will be quite large as well.

      It's already starting. I've posted several examples of giant commercial buildings selling for a fraction of their previous values

      https://www.costar.com/article/642008108/one-of-st-louis-tallest-office-towers-empty-for-years-sells-for-less-than-2-of-its-peak-price
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:11:58 JST permalink

      Attachments


    • Embed this notice
      Blurry Moon (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:29 JST Blurry Moon Blurry Moon
      in reply to
      • feld
      • bloomtime!
      @feld @FluentInFinance @thesquirrelfish stop the forever wars and US emissions drop by over 59 million metric tons annually
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:29 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:30 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @feld @FluentInFinance @sun right but the CapEx projects have the same problems as housing - climate disasters. If we can get to zero emissions relatively quickly that might be doable, but that seems to be dependent on such significant economic changes that it would make this conversation irrelevant.

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:30 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:30 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun a CapEx project of buying/building a datacenter next to a nuclear power plant for dirt cheap energy in an area that is not at risk of flooding does not carry the same risks as a CapEx project to rebuild powerline infrastrucuture across the country or constructing residential/commercial properties in an area that will have to deal with hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or coastal flooding.

      Insurance will fill the gaps. They're not going to do these projects without insurance. The banks won't allow it.

      I wouldn't concern myself so much about getting to zero emissions relatively quickly. The math really isn't in our favor here. We can get to zero in some areas e.g., like electrical generation, but that's only a tiny part of our real carbon footprint.

      If we did it fast we'd suffer from a heat wave anyway. There will be repercussions from us changing the balance too quickly. We're already seeing it right now with a heat wave that is most likely caused by reducing sulphur emissions for shipping.


      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/termination-shock-cut-in-ship-pollution-sparked-global-heating-spurt
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:30 JST permalink

      Attachments

      1. Domain not in remote thumbnail source whitelist: i.guim.co.uk
        ‘Termination shock’: cut in ship pollution sparked global heating spurt
        from https://www.theguardian.com/profile/damiancarrington
        Sudden cut in pollution in 2020 meant less shade from sun and was ‘substantial’ factor in record surface temperatures in 2023, study finds
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:31 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun dividends, that's where it comes from. Like your grandparents had access to after WW2.

      So we go back to the way things used to be: companies focused on long-term growth stability in a slower economic climate where financing is expensive. Instead they pay dividends to attract investors who want to ride with them for many years to fund their big capex projects instead of the current method of leveraging cheap funding from ZIRP and letting their stock become a casino.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:31 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:32 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • feld
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun you really have to admit that this is not normal or sane
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:32 JST permalink

      Attachments


      1. https://media.bikeshed.party/pleroma/974b92f6e7ed3d4e9a81ed13c9a41146b4d8af8073f0a15ad2064ccc7e3e9aeb.png
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:32 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @feld @FluentInFinance @sun oh I fully agree. I just am not sure that getting passive returns from financial markets is going to be possible in the harder world of climate change we seem to be headed toward. If most people have to struggle even more for the basics, where's the return going to come from? It seems like it would require increased authoritarian enforcement that's (hopefully/probably) not scalable.

      Like the world doesn't have to be zero sum, but investing in oil & gas & industrial ag lowers the total output of basic human need filling goods from the system. If we have to put more money/energy into needs filling, the available human resources for providing rents/passive returns is lowered. So they're kind of self-defeating

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 02:12:32 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:11 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun the returns need to be low and we need to accept it as the cost of a stable economy. The last 50 years have been absolute chaos in comparison. We cannot sustain the desires of greedy people pushing for short term gains at any and all costs.

      A culture change will need to happen and it probably won't take hold until real pain is experienced IMO.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:11 JST permalink
      Blurry Moon likes this.
    • Embed this notice
      feld (feld@bikeshed.party)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:12 JST feld feld
      in reply to
      • bloomtime!
      • Blurry Moon
      @thesquirrelfish @FluentInFinance @sun re: Svalbard Seed Bank -- we made a long term decision without enough data. It's just the way it is.
      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:12 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:12 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @feld @FluentInFinance @sun right and my point is that the more rapidly climate change advances the less we'll be able to determine what will be safe enough to give reliable returns for large long-term projects.

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:12 JST permalink
    • Embed this notice
      bloomtime! (thesquirrelfish@sfba.social)'s status on Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:13 JST bloomtime! bloomtime!
      in reply to
      • feld
      • Blurry Moon

      @feld @FluentInFinance @sun I disagree - as we're seeing previous climactically stable areas increasingly impacted by new threats a place safe from flooding might be in more danger from tornadoes and wildfires etc. Svalbard Seed Bank was thought to be the safest place for a thousand years and just a few decades later we see it in jeopardy. The data centers value depends on much of the same infrastructure as the long distance wired electrical grid. Etc.

      In conversation Saturday, 08-Jun-2024 03:09:13 JST permalink

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