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   Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 00:26:03 JST Evan Prodromou

   So, this probably feels like a wild conspiracy theory, but hear me out. My two touchpoints are the 1980 "October Surprise" theory, which is not well evidenced and may or may not have happened. The other is 2016 Russian election interference, involving the Trump campaign itself. In both, communication between a presidential campaign and a foreign government was indirect, murky, and unclear.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 00:34:31 JST Evan Prodromou

     in reply to

     I wish I believed that the Trump campaign was above doing this kind of meddling, but I don't. I could definitely believe that the campaign would put the lives of non-Americans and some Americans at risk in order to win the election in November. That may say more about me and my poor opinion of the campaign rather than the campaign itself.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 00:42:10 JST Evan Prodromou

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     All that said, Trump himself has said that Israel should get the war over soon. He was ambiguous about how to do that, which is kind of creepy. But even if the war might be harming his opponent's campaign, Israel has committed the one unforgivable sin in the Trump universe: becoming unpopular.

     https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-israel-pr-hugh-hewitt-21faee332d95fec99652c112fbdcd35d

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 00:47:01 JST Evan Prodromou

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     I guess there's also the question of whether the war is actually bad for Biden. I'm not sure that's the case; I haven't done much research on it. It sure seems that way to me personally, but that's not necessarily backed up with data.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 00:50:26 JST Evan Prodromou

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     So, the question becomes: if they believe that the war is bad for Biden, would members of the Trump campaign try to coordinate with the Netanyahu government to drag out the war, even over the stated objections of the candidate? I am just not sure, so I would give this prediction a qualified no. I don't think it's impossible, but I don't think it would happen.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 00:53:21 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • James M.

     @jamesmarshall brought up the fact that other countries are involved in the war, like Russia, and they may have connections to US presidential campaigns or similar motivations. That's probably a fair point.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 01:08:00 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • Jonathan Glick

     @Jonathanglick I'm not sure that polls back that up.

     https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/03/politics/israel-hamas-war-biden-vietnam/index.html

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     Jonathan Glick (jonathanglick@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 01:08:01 JST Jonathan Glick

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     @evan It's definitely bad for Biden, I think that's certain.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 01:15:34 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • Jason Grigsby

     @grigs Great point!

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     Jason Grigsby (grigs@front-end.social)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 01:15:35 JST Jason Grigsby

     in reply to

     @evan Two things are true:

     1. The Trump campaign wouldn’t hesitate to coordinate with Netanyahu. They are like-minded authoritarians.
     2. Netanyahu has his own political reasons for prolonging the war. Whenever the war stops, he will face an election and lose. After he loses, he faces criminal charges.

     Because of the second, I believe the first is inconsequential in this matter.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 04:26:21 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • Jonathan Glick

     @Jonathanglick I think you're probably right!

     Donations are important, and volunteers are hugely important.

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     Jonathan Glick (jonathanglick@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 04:26:22 JST Jonathan Glick

     in reply to

     @evan BTW: I feel strongly that the campus protests aren't the cause of bad polling for the Dems, but rather that both are an effect of the dismay that most young people have for a bipartisan consensus they consider unfair on many issues, foreign and domestic.

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     Jonathan Glick (jonathanglick@mstdn.social)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 04:26:23 JST Jonathan Glick

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     @evan Do you think donations are important to the Democrats chances? If so, yes, it's bad. If not, maybe not.

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     Evan Prodromou (evan@cosocial.ca)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 04:29:54 JST Evan Prodromou

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     • Fifi Lamoura

     @fifilamoura the weird thing is if the ICC indictments come through, he can't even flee the country!

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     Fifi Lamoura (fifilamoura@eldritch.cafe)'s status on Thursday, 09-May-2024 04:29:55 JST Fifi Lamoura

     in reply to

     @evan Occam's razor says Netanyahu is actually extending the war for reasons of internal Israeli politics (though it's a boon for his allies like Trump and probably Putin). Netanyahu is clinging to power, if he doesn't appease the religious fundamentalists who are keeping him in power he'll not only lose his job but likely end up in jail. All of these players are "me first" type of sociopaths. Sure they'll work with each other, and Bannon will try to make it look like he's powerbrokering for Trump and the Republicans will try to make this worse for Biden, but Netanyahu is making choices purely for Netanyahu. Ideology is simply window dressing, part of the con and their own self aggrandizement, for most sociopaths. Even if we concede that Biden is in a very difficult situation, he really is doing a lot of this to himself.