Babs E. Blue #DoNotComply
From #LATimes: "Nationally, COVID-19 remains the primary cause of new respiratory hospitalizations and deaths, resulting in about 1,000 fatalities a week."
1000 fatalities a WEEK - how can a nation be OK with this? That's over a third of 9/11 every week. EVERY FRIGGIN WEEK.
What is wrong with this picture? Absolutely everything.
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
@BlueWaver22 For some perspective that is the exact same rate the Flu has killed people int he USA for decades. The annual death due to flu in the USA is very slightly less than 1000 a week...
Babs E. Blue #DoNotComply
@freemo That's not what I've read from scientists...not at all.
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
@BlueWaver22 I am a COVID research scientist... Yes you did, you literally just heard it from one.
George Budd
@freemo @BlueWaver22 It seems to vary a lot, but it is interesting how we’ve become inured to flu deaths and are well on our way to being inured to covid-19 deaths.
As a species we are really good at getting used to all manner of things
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
Yup exactly… I find it hilarious how this guy took my comment as an attack on COVID rather than as a “wow maybe we should try to prevent the flu better”… People like this guy is why we have these social problems.
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
Totally agree we should prevent flu better. Lack of flu activity in 2020-21 basically showed that covid mitigations = flu mitigations!
Absolutely, Flu and COVID are serious diseases even if they arent at the level of hype some people would like you to think. We should take reasonable precautions for either, that includes good filtration and airflow in public spaces, good hygiene. When in a high-risk environment like a nursing home mask up, etc. But les also not go too far off the deep end either (like shutting down whole economies over an outbreak).
I think the issue was the phrasing that 1000 deaths/wk “is the exact same rate the flu has killed people in the USA for decades.”
This is misleading. The stats you are refering to are the isolated influence stats.. that is, it includes direct death from influence and excludes death from pnumonia caused by influenza. The COVID figure inclues people who die of secondary causes that are the direct result of COVID. When you factor int he same from influenza then it is much higher than the 600 average figure our quoting. Sadly the CDC itself doesnt have these figures you’d have to go to a secondary data set to get that. Regardless the figure is well over a thousand for sure, I picked that number to be generous. When you combine influenza and pnumonia the figure is 41K a week, but sadly that would include pnumonia without the flu as a primary cause.
ikuo
@freemo @Gbudd @BlueWaver22 Totally agree we should prevent flu better. Lack of flu activity in 2020-21 basically showed that covid mitigations = flu mitigations!
I think the issue was the phrasing that 1000 deaths/wk "is the exact same rate the flu has killed people in the USA for decades."
Per the CDC page linked, only 1 yr in the last decade had 1000 flu deaths/wk & the avg for last 12 yrs was ~600/wk.
If the rate was closer to 1000/week in earlier decades, a source link would be helpful!
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
You can see on this page that the deaths for flu + pnumonia is 41k, for flu not including pnumonia its the 600 figure:.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm
The policies for listing covid ont he death certificate is generally different for listing Flu. Not sure how the policies have changed recently but back when I was actively a part of this we were required to list COVID as cuase of death regardless of if it is the primary cause or not. They may have changed that policy recently of course, not sure.
ikuo
@freemo @Gbudd @BlueWaver22 Hmm... The CDC pages seem to say the opposite?
CDC flu estimates include all flu-related deaths (including pneumonia, etc.) & is NOT limited to flu being listed on death certificate, which "would be a gross underestimation". Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
CDC covid deaths ONLY include those that list covid (ICD–10 code U07.1) on the death certificate. Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00
By CDC's own logic for flu, their covid numbers are surely a gross undercount!
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
Regardless of anything else.. right now covid deaths are around 1000 per week and flu deaths are also around 1000 per week at the moment. The rest of the details are less important regarding what the average was over some arbitrary time period.
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
Not sure why the other CDC link I gave earlier shows 41K deaths due to influenza including pnumonia.
Again regardless this is all misisng the point. Flu routinely spike causing 1000 deaths a week, sometimes its less sometimes its more. COVID also tends to spike up and down. The point is 1000 deaths a week is not unusual for FLU at least as ballpark, and very comparable to COVID.
For example week 50 of 2022 had 1048 flu and related deaths during that one week. Granted this is a peek. You can find it here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#NCHSMortality
Similarly from July of 2022 to today we have had anywhere from 400 on weekly numbers up to 1.2K, which again shows my original point, that while COVID is certainly a bit more deadly these numbers are now in flu territory. higher, but in a similar ballpark at this point.
ikuo
@freemo @Gbudd @BlueWaver22 It's certainly a challenge to find data for apples-to-apples comparisons!!!
Looking only at published CDC data (which may or may not be obfuscating "real" data), they are reporting ~1200-1400 covid deaths/week since September: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00
Sticking with the CDC, they are reporting 3200 flu deaths "so far this season". Assuming the season started in September, that's ~200/week; if the season started in October, that's ~267/week. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
Why isnt putting it into perspective relevant? Simply put per year:
Flu: ~30K - 50K, or ~600/week to 1K/week.
Covid, we dont have long term trends post lock-down. But since july its ~600/week to 1.2K per week.
Pnumonia is ~50K per year.
I think its very relevant to point out COVID is about as deadly as most non-trivial respertory diseases. Which is to say it **is** deadly but you shouldnt be loosing any more sleep over it than you did 10 years ago.
ikuo
@freemo @Gbudd @BlueWaver22 Thanks for pointing me to the weekly flu deaths graph! I was looking for it but just didn't scroll down far enough.
I think this is where we agree to disagree. I don't think it's helpful to compare peak flu deaths of 1000/week to covid's 2nd-lowest baseline of 1200 deaths/week.
Covid having a sustained 1200 deaths/week for 3-4 months during flu season makes it MUCH more deadly than flu. If anything, in week 50 of 2022, flu temporarily peaked into "covid territory".
🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
No no the numbers I didnt give were peak. According to the CDC the **annual** flu numbers tend to range from ~30K to 50K a year, these arent peak. We have some outlier years that were not the norm due to singifnicant temporary world events (like economic lock down), but during "normal" years those numbers are typical, **not** peak.
So while im happy to agree to disagree we seem to disagree onfundemental facts not interpritation.
Also, never feel obligated to respond, just as I should never feel obligated not to give my response.
ikuo
@freemo @Gbudd @BlueWaver22 Again, I don't think comparing PEAK flu numbers to short-term BASELINE covid numbers is a helpful comparison.
Additionally, focusing solely on the deadliness of covid vs. flu ignores the potential damage of long covid. If I lose sleep over covid, it's not because I think I or my loved ones will die - I'm pretty sure we won't - it's because I don't want any part of long covid.
We really must agree to disagree. This is the last response I'll post. 🙂
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