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   Carl T. Bergstrom (ct_bergstrom@fediscience.org)'s status on Thursday, 28-Dec-2023 07:00:33 JST Carl T. Bergstrom

   in reply to

   It's interesting; most of the classic bell-shaped curves don't arise purely due to susceptible depletion as predicted by the SIR model. This is true even for the plague example in the original SIR model, as Bacaër (2012) noted.

   If you're running into a paywall: https://carlbergstrom.com/publications/pdfs/2023PNAS.pdf

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     Carl T. Bergstrom (ct_bergstrom@fediscience.org)'s status on Thursday, 28-Dec-2023 07:00:35 JST Carl T. Bergstrom

     Today Bill Hanage and I have a commentary in PNAS, where we discuss the role of factors other than acquired immunity in generating bell-shaped epidemic curves. Our purpose is to provide context for Saad-Roy and Traulsen's model of human behavior and disease dynamics in the same issue.

     https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2317211120

     Paul Cantrell repeated this.