Luke Kanies
@thomasfuchs again, I don’t think that’s true. I don’t know it, but what I’ve read seems to indicate it. E.G., I have ehler’s danlos syndrome, which is a collagen deficiency, and people with issues like this seem to be a huge chunk of people getting long covid.
It looks like there’s a solid chance you need some underlying issue to get long covid. That means some people can “safely” get sick again and again, while others get hit because of some issue they did not know they had.
chiasm
@thomasfuchs you also need to model the changing probability with the different variants over the years too--my understanding is that it has not been constant, plus it varies with vaccination status. I know it is still abominably high but I'd love to see a more nuanced model.
Francis Chong
@thomasfuchs This requires the events be independent. Get disabled by COVID may or may not be independent — they might very well depend on your health or body which makes each inflection not independent events.
chiasm
@thomasfuchs do you have a citation for that? At least in the US the CDC has it currently at about 6-7percent, if I'm reading this right? But it could be different elsewhere.
https://health.ucdavis.edu/news/headlines/what-is-the-risk-of-long-covid-/2023/09#:~:text=The%20CDC%20analyzed%20data%20from,from%207.5%25%20to%206%25.
Luke Kanies
@thomasfuchs I expect that math isn’t right - that at least some component of probability of long term damage is genetic and/or behavioral or related to health history.
Some people will likely never get long term damage, and others are so likely to get it that they get hit very quickly.
That doesn’t mean you should not worry. But it does change the diffultynin convincing people to care.
Luke Kanies
@thomasfuchs I *think* that’s what happened to me. I have a bunch of minor life long issues, but they all got cranked to 10 in October 2020. My only theory is that I got asymptomatic Covid, which then gave me long COVID. (I’ve been mostly disabled since then.)
I feel *more* vulnerable, but others are way less vulnerable.
Those not vulnerable people will be the influencers who will be platformed, telling everyone it’s not dangerous. IMO, messaging has to take that into account
Luke Kanies
@thomasfuchs I was perfectly healthy, but with multiple (usually latent, like my heart problem) long term issues. I.E., I thought I was healthy, but was set up for failure.
Monika Viktorova
@lkanies @thomasfuchs While Covid will exacerbate any underlying health issue you have, the research is extremely clear that Covid does not need a pre existing condition to give you long covid. It’s also important to remember that having had a previous covid infection *is* a pre existing condition for long covid. Multiple reputable studies have now demonstrated increased impacts with successive infections.
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