“The IPCC pathway for staying below the 1.5°C climate goal is now considered implausible by the expert climate community.”
Can’t get much clearer than that.
“The IPCC pathway for staying below the 1.5°C climate goal is now considered implausible by the expert climate community.”
Can’t get much clearer than that.
“Citizens need to know: the world is expected to breach 1.5°C of warming within a decade or so.”
The certainty that we’re going over 1.5C is why language like this is frustrating:
“Five important natural thresholds already risk being crossed, according to the Global Tipping Points report, and three more may be reached in the 2030s if the world heats 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial temperatures.”
‘If’? This sounds like some hypothetical future. It’s not.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn #climateChange
@steve Sorry, what’s the difference between saying breach and overshoot?
@Brendanjones
But getting the language right is tricky. If you just say we’re certain to breach the 1.5 limit, people (outside the climate science community) tend to hear “game over”, which feeds into doomerism.
I prefer to say there is now no doubt we will overshoot the 1.5 limit, so we need to focus on minimizing the overshoot. Every fraction of a degree will bring more irreversible damage.
@steve Okay I disagree on there being much difference between breach and overshoot, but this is the nature of language.
I think rather than worrying too much about how to communicate having reached 1.5C, it’s far more important to focus on communicating your earlier point: “minimizing the overshoot. Every fraction of a degree will bring more irreversible damage.”
@Brendanjones
The key thing is to avoid binary language. Saying the 1.5C goal is implausible, or we will certainly breach it, or cross it (or whatever) all sounds like we have (or we will) "cross a line". It sounds like game over, we lost. Think about how crossing the line in sports is equated with winning or losing.
Terms like "overshoot" imply a quantity to be managed, rather than a final state, especially if immediately followed by language that frames it that way.
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