Notices by Gernot Wagner (gwagner@fediscience.org)

@georgetakei Mine is 4-19. Watch out, 4-19 sign!

Maybe, just maybe, it's more about frequent reliable buses and trains, plus, say, designated bus and bike lanes and a sprinkling of smart urban design after all
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/hyperloop-one-to-shut-down-after-raising-millions-to-reinvent-transit
#climate #transit #urbanism

The gavel just came down on #COP28, surely one of the most surreal climate summits to date. The main COP agreement is anything but "historic," as a few of today's headlines seem to suggest.

But there was something bigger happening in Dubai: a clear move toward delivering on clean energy.

My latest column just out, on "How to Assess the Outcome of COP28": https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cop28-pledges-methane-still-matters-even-if-oil-gas-industry-focusing-on-own-interests-by-gernot-wagner-2023-12
#climate

All you need to know about the breathless headlines celebrating the inclusion of "fossil fuels" in the #COP28 Agreement is Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz praising it, "adding that the deal would not affect the ability of the world's top oil exporter to sell its crude." https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/saudi-energy-minister-agreement-with-cop28-presidency-final-deal-2023-12-13/

So yes, I'll stick to my guns: doubling rate of efficiency improvements by 2030, and tripling renewables by 2030 and nuclear by 2050 are the big deal here. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cop28-pledges-methane-still-matters-even-if-oil-gas-industry-focusing-on-own-interests-by-gernot-wagner-2023-12
#climate

Title says it all.

Graphs say more.

"Energy transition will require substantially less mining than the current fossil system"

And all that's 'just' the mining, not even including the pumping of oil & gas, nor the dumping of CO₂:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435123004117?dgcid=author
#climate #energy #mining

For the mathematicians in the room, that's the second derivative pointing in the right direction at last.

For the rest of us: bathtub overflowing, and we are no longer turning up the spigot even further.

Good news. Now, to get CO₂ emissions down, to zero.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/
#climate

Put me down on the side of more PV module waste, less of everything else
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-023-02230-0
#climate #sustainability

One of the most prominent arguments against rapid solar deployment: land!

Yes, there are tradeoffs. Of course, there are. That's especially true, say, if most of your land is confined to one big island, as in the #UK.

And yes, by calling out "golf courses" here we're squarely in "OMG culture war!" territory.

Still, the numbers couldn't be clearer.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-solar-power-a-threat-to-uk-farmland/
#climate #solar #Sunak

Climate crisis on track to push one third of humanity out of its most livable environment.

One third.

And that's a conservative lower bound. Paper says 3-6 billion people.
https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-crisis-niche-migration-environment-population
#climate

The transition from fickle, unreliable fossil fuels to stable, reliable renewables can't come soon enough
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-gas-storage-is-filling-too-fast-kemp-2023-07-06/
#climate #gas #EU

Want to cut emissions by 10, 20%? Install a more efficient (gas) boiler.

Want to cut emissions 80, 90%? Go heat pump.

Policy needs to guide us to the 80, 90% solution!
https://gwagner.com/mh
#climate #ClimateTech

Last 3 German nuclear reactors are going offline this week.

Last German coal plant? 2038.

#climate #priorities

Image: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519303611#fig5

9-year-old: "You know why birds poop when they're scared? So they can take off faster. It's like why space ships get faster when they get lighter."

Long pause.

"You should really pay more attention to science."

#science #kids