Notices by Mark Kraft (krafttea@mastodon.social), page 4

The word is, when the explosion at Toropets happened, it took out an entire Russian barracks too... Nevzorov shows photos of wounded and killed people from nearby the blast, as well as a growing consensus at the scene that many people disappeared in the initial explosions. Could be dozens... could be over a hundred.

Prune602's question "so... what do they do next?" has an obvious answer.

They create rubles out of thin air.

Deficit spending. Devaluing the currency. Probably flooding the financial industry with the liquidity, too.

The problem: where does it stop, who gets bailed out, and where's the revenue & demand to support such a deficit?

It's odd for an American to lecture others on deficits, but US' spending is predicated upon a HUGE economy with the world's most used & pegged currency.

🇷🇺s isn't.

The next to last Russian bond sale for the quarter happened today. Result? Bond sales dropped off ~½ from Day 11, which still wasn't nearly on track to their goal, potentially due to low financial industry liquidity. (see thermometer below.)
In short, the government is looking at raising ½ of their goal. The missing ½ is a big, huge hole in the budget.

But wait... it gets worse! Russia's Gaidar Institute expects the deficit to be 4.3T Rubles; slightly over 2X what the govt. recently predicted.

In the wake of giant-ass mushroom cloud explosions that PHYSICALLY BLOW THE WINDOW FRAMES out of your quality Russian lifestyle, the government is telling people not to look up, and not to share what you see online, if/when you do so.

Reality is harmful to Russia's security.

@NeonPurpleStar Understandable, which is why I share their stuff here.

But I can't do that, because I was suspended from Twitter, for an unspecified reason ages ago... presumably for being either anti-Elon, pro-Ukrainian, or both.

I read Prune602's posts at https://xcancel.com/Prune602/ ... a nitter site that still works!

Noticed something from the Telegram Ekonomika_Zubarevich channel.

You know how I've been saying there's a BIG problem right now with Russian financial institutions not having liquidity / money to buy Russian war bonds, to help cover the government's mounting deficits?

Sberbank, one of Russia's leading banks, has suspended issuing family mortgages, having exhausted its limits.

Not only are loans at ~30%, but YOU CAN'T GET THEM. Which leads to stiff conditions & higher rates, and loan sharks!💶🦈

In Toropets, Russia, a HUGE ammunition depot was hit, apparently setting the whole complex off.

Approximately, 30,000 tons of various explosive ordnance went up, including mortar rounds, mines, Grads, glide bombs, tank rounds, etc. An amount big enough to mirror the effects of a small nuclear weapon.

The impact will be especially severe on Russian arms and supplies for the Kursk region.

Fivethirtyeight model now predicts Harris is significantly more likely to win than Trump. (Keep in mind that they tweaked this model after Hillary Clinton lost.)

Nate Silver is probably a bit upset.

A trove of leaked records from a vast Russian disinformation campaign reveals how Moscow used bots to promote memes and attacks on a vast scale, which also targeted the LGBTQA community - and especially the transgender community - for supposedly endangering minors.

By stoking hatred, they would promote extremism and leverage wedge issues to weaken liberal democratic governments that supported Ukraine.

Elon Musk was just one of many who shared these memes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-disiformation-propaganda-campaign/33123498.html

Yeah, but look at who's standing behind him, listening to him say that.

It's the entire cast of "are we the baddies?!"

I recently watched #dune 2, and something occurred to me...

You know how #elonmusk creepythreatened to impregnate #taylorswift?

That's peak Feyd-Rautha Harkonnen psychopath energy there. That's the kind of stupid, offensive, threatening nonsense you spout, before you get shivved with a crysknife in the brain.
#scifi

Russia's doubling down on this part of Kursk was risky for a reason, it seems.

Hoping they get their clock cleaned.

This is why I personally don't think negotiating with Russia is worthwhile. The best conclusion to the war is likely to let Russia's problems fully play out.

Posts from me during last year's Ukr. offensive.

Ukr. fought its way to 20km away from Tokmak. They've lost a bit of that ground since then, but, as I've been pointing out lately, the range of Ukr. suicide drones keeps getting longer and longer.

Despite the offensive's losses, its great feeling it wasn't entirely in vain, as this accomplishes a MAJOR GOAL of the offensive.

Everything going by train to Western Ukraine is now vulnerable. Even at night. VERY strategically significant.

To clarify, SOMETIMES, inflation is a great opportunity to pay back debts for pennies on the dollar. (Or kopeks on the ruble.)

The problem being:
By and large, the only people who are stupid enough to be be owed rubles are Russians, and fools who deserve to get fleeced. (Some of these might include Western businesses who didn't get out of Rus already.)

BY FAR, the biggest suckers are Rus citizens & financial institutions.

They'll own / get paid in devalued rubles, while China gets the gold.

Russia central bank raises their key rate to 19%. They most recently raised it two months ago, to 18%. They're already talking about possibly raising it further, and several Russian economic voices have expressed concern that the situation doesn't lend itself to key rate changes being as effective in curbing inflation as it normally would be.

Meanwhile... we get to watch Russian businesses - and private citizens - spiral into a debt trap.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-central-bank-interest-rate-7aeaed4f26b8ce34eb91d16e46226d16

I feel pretty justified for not immediately jumping on the Russian commentary of their counterattack... which seems to have fizzled out, and is... being counterattacked. From the flank, even.

Looks like they initially surprised the Ukr. by counterattacking into the upcoming attack, basically... but that didn't help much, as it potentially made them more vulnerable to being flanked.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/13/ukrainian-troops-breached-the-russian-border-west-of-kursk-and-claimed-they-bypassed-thousands-of-russian-conscripts/

Translated from Russian, from the Moscow Times.

China is reducing its purchases of Russian oil, leaving them without enough buyers and with reduced exports.

China is rapidly shifting to electric cars, reducing demand... so there may be no future return to previous highs.

Of course, none of this was predicted by the Russian government, and it pokes major holes in their Federal budget.
Yes, again.
...sounds like another job for the sovereign wealth fund!

A really good, detailed look at the defenses and the situation fresh Ukrainian units are stepping into around #Pokrovsk . It's hardly a perfect situation, but suddenly having fresh units and their artillery and drones to counter the Russians will likely lead to increased Russian artillery losses and, with any luck, a stabilization of the defensive position across the entire salient.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1832407248846344670.html

Judge chooses cowardice and kicking the can down the road on Trump's sentencing, treating him differently than an ordinary convicted criminal.

(Ugh. I was afraid that this was what was being telegraphed with this judge's actions.)