Notices by Wary Jerry (jerry@infosec.exchange)

I got to take my parents to a baseball game tonight. It was the first time they had been to one since 1981. It was good to be able to spend some time with them.

Happy May the 4th to all the radical lunatics that believe in extremist ideas like empathy, equality, free trade, and due process.

@simonzerafa oil is a globally traded commodity, so more supply means a lower price. Lower prices mean that the non-subsidized (relative to Middle East) US oil companies will have to cease some operations because it’s no longer profitable at the current price level. So the US stops drilling, slows down on pumping and refining, and begins to import more oil. Then opec cuts production and the costs skyrocket because it takes years for the US producers to get back to business. This is what happened after Trump negotiated a production increase with Saudi Arabia in his first term.

@simonzerafa opec knows what they are doing. A year or two of $50 oil will get them
Two or three years of $100+ oil

@clacke I think so - but ironically, opec is effectively doing what Trump wants - making moves that make oil cheaper, and so they have to be sitting back smiling because they are making Trump happy while tying our shoe laces together. Trump doesn’t seem to be able to think more than one step ahead, and he’s surrounded himself with people who will never question him, just like any good CEO does. @virtualinanity @kwayk42

@virtualinanity @kwayk42 I agree with that. I think the SPR may still be close to depleted too. Maybe they’ll fill it back up if it goes down to $50, but who knows since they just outsourced the SPR to some private company.

@virtualinanity @kwayk42 US production will recover, but it will take time and during that recovery period, we’ll see some really high prices. But we will see much higher electric and natural gas prices almost immediately.

@masek what will be different this time, I think, is that he’ll still be in office (probably) when the oil prices reverse course and start soaring. But you’re right, for a time we will have to hear about what an amazing deal maker he is. I guess then he’ll blame Biden when it goes back up?

@gollyhatch I do think we could be accidentally killing Russia here. Which isn’t the worst thing ever. But I think they’ll probably be fine

@virtualinanity @kwayk42 the lower oil prices go in the US, the less economical is it for US oil producers to drill for and pump oil. New exploration and drilling break even is about $70/barrel. We are at $59/barrel now. The opec action could send it down to $50/barrel. This means that less of our oil (and oil byproducts like gas) will come from US companies. We will be capping wells, not drilling, shuttering refineries, and so on. This, by the way, also significantly curtails domestic nat gas production, at a time that the US is exporting more and more nat gas because we can sell it for much more abroad. At some point, likely after they see US production materially down, opec will slam on the brakes, which will send oil prices soaring. This is exactly what happened in Trump 45 and bleeding into Biden’s term, btw. It’s in the process of happening again.

OPEC is increasing oil production at a time oil prices are already falling. RIP our electric bills 💩

@kwayk42 this is going to send gas prices (and natural gas prices) through the roof.

It has me wondering how much of the open source code we use has also been created using AI?

This may explain some things https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/satya-nadella-says-as-much-as-30percent-of-microsoft-code-is-written-by-ai.html

@hacks4pancakes I signed it, though I am not a pro.

@feld @unixjunk1e there are quite a few retailers doing it. I don’t think Temu has much of a choice due to the dramatic increase of all prices.

@unixjunk1e that story didn’t age well. Amazon just said that they were considering it but decided not to display the tariff cost

Sorry, Europe

To my Canadian friends who have an important election next week, I’ll give you some advice my dad once gave me, which has stuck with me all these years and seems very relevant to this situation:

“Jerry” he said
“Don’t fuck it up”

Strobe fried orchid. My favorite!

#bloomscrolling