Notices by Paul Cantrell (inthehands@hachyderm.io), page 4

@pferal https://hachyderm.io/@inthehands/113511741747010258

@talexb
With both the 26% and the 28%, the “why” is an important question to consider carefully. For starters, please note the asterisk in my OP.

@BillSeitz
Yup, and then half either didn't care or •wanted• to vote but couldn't, and we have very little idea how the balance between those two shakes out, so…grand, sweeping judgements that are actually accurate about the US seem to be elusive.

@MyOpinion
Yeah. Democracy itself is a deeply flawed idea — worse than everything except all the alternatives — but we sure could do a better job of it.

@coolandnormal @jwi
Indeed, and there's a reason why certain people are so keen to maximize how many people are ineligible.

Like…just for starters, if you're walking down the street thinking, “Did HALF of these people really vote for this miserable fascist shitstain?,” the answer to that question is, “No, about a quarter did.”

…Which is still pretty damn depressing, but…well, I find that that thought does give me a substantially different picture of the country I live in.

@janxdevil
Keep in mind that the 26% and the 28% both include people whose vote was suppressed: wanted to vote, but couldn't. So probably not quite a majority are as you describe.

Still damned depressing.

@peterbutler @RnDanger
I pulled total US population, which would include children, and also non-citizens.

@ainmosni
Indeed it does. They're in that 28% too.

Two things we need to be careful about are:

- “eligible but did not vote” includes both apathy and suppression
- “not eligible to vote” also includes suppression

The broader point of my OP here is that there are a lot of analyses circulating that use more meticulously gathered data about •the wrong questions• — or at least about flawed questions that ignore over half the population of the country.

@MyOpinion
No, all of the US is getting what 1/4 of the US asked for.

Re @davids7’s question: my numbers are back-of-napkin calculations using press reports of current vote tally + sloppy web searching for US population and voting-eligible population. Please take my numbers with the appropriate gain of salt.

The broad “each group is about about 1/4” conclusion should be approximately correct, but don't stare too hard at exact percentages until somebody does this calculation a bit more carefully.

https://mastodon.social/@davids7/113511407571843374

@ainmosni
It's supposed to include children, yes. Whole US population.

@RnDanger
Yes, I tried to make it so

@lonepundit
There is no credible evidence I'm aware of that Russia et al have ever manipulated vote totals, and there's •ample• reason — both in process and data — to think they haven't.

There is, on the other hand, overwhelming evidence that Russia at least has manipulated •voters• with disinformation and fake engament designed to foster infighting, exacerbate divisions, and de-motivate people. That, I think, very much shows in the numbers I posted.

A relevant article:
https://www.wonkette.com/p/donald-trumps-margin-size-is-almost

(Please lmk if I screwed up the math; I haven't had lunch yet)

The actual outcome of this election with •the whole US population• as the denominator:

22% voted for Harris
23% voted for Trump
<1% voted for other
26% eligible but did not vote*
28% not eligible to vote

* (whether by choice or by voter suppression)

Numbers might shift a tiny bit as last votes are counted, but this is close to the final tally.

Just sit with that for one quality minute. Think about what stories people are telling about this election. Then think about what stories are true.

When Goldstein says "the people have spoken," let's remember that the MAGA bloc is less slightly less than half of those who voted, which is less than half of the population.

Also, they didn't say a thing about these cases, which they didn't weigh as the law requires; by casting a vote, they just said something about who they want in power.

Many MAGA voters concede that he is a criminal, but choose to empower him anyway.

More much-needed sense-talking on this general theme from @_L1vY_:

https://mstdn.social/@_L1vY_/113505523103645877