Notices by Kees van der Leun (sustainable2050@mastodon.energy), page 3

So far this month, we had 2.4 mm of rain in the central Netherlands, and with no rain in sight, that'll be the monthly total too.
That's 94% below average, and about what Chile's Atacama desert gets in April.

"This photo should be on the front page of every single newspaper in America today."
Jon Cooper on Bluesky

The Dutch tax authority, after advice by McKinsey, is in the process of outsourcing the collection of VAT (€1.5 billion per week) - a core activity - to a US company called Fast Enterprises, handing the Trump regime another unique tool to apply pressure.
https://www.ad.nl/politiek/eerenberg-drukt-amerikaanse-aanbesteding-btw-systeem-door-ondanks-waarschuwingen-experts~a2096dd9/

New research combined real-world ocean observations on the AMOC circulation with a range of climate models to determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of uncertainty.
They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse of AMOC.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

And it's more complicated than that. At Common Futures, we recently learned from Swinda Falkena (Utrecht University) that a subsystem of AMOC, the Subpolar Gyre south of Greenland, could shut down much faster than AMOC as a whole. This can have a profound effect on climate in NW-Europe within a few decades. Iceland and Scotland are most at risk, but the Netherlands is also in the sphere of influence.

Next up: Slovakia. Elections latest in 2027.

When the Strait of Hormuz opens up, there will be a lot more interest in getting out of the Gulf than in sailing into it. To get the oil and gas flowing again, you'll need both, though. That will take a while.

The average speed of a Dutch passenger car, over the whole year, is around 1.5 km/h (less than 1 mph).

Every time you visit LinkedIn in Chrome, a hidden routine silently probes your browser for more than 6,000 installed extensions, collects 48 hardware and software characteristics about your device, encrypts the resulting fingerprint, and attaches it to every API request you make during your session.
https://thenextweb.com/news/linkedin-browsergate-extension-scanning-privacy-fingerprint

No problem with kerosene at all in the Netherlands, though. Travel agencies are not preparing for shortages.
Let's keep this for future reference. https://www.nu.nl/economie/6391409/nederlandse-toerist-kiest-andere-bestemmingen-om-oorlog-midden-oosten.html

Italy Sets Jet Fuel Limits at Some Airports on Supply Shortage -
Europe is the main importer of jet fuel — including kerosene — from the Persian Gulf.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-05/italy-sets-jet-fuel-limits-at-some-airports-on-supply-shortage

Carriers using these Italian airports are being instructed to arrive with fuller tanks or to refuel elsewhere on the network. While the measures stop short of a full shutdown, they significantly reduce flexibility for airlines.
And help to spread the problem over Europe.
https://www.thetraveler.org/fuel-squeeze-at-italian-airports-rattles-european-skies/

Middle East expert Koert Debeuf: The US and Israel attack Iran, Iran strikes back, and what happens? Europe only condemns Iran. The rest of the world sees this, too. They see us as a bunch of fearful vassals of the White House.
https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/04/03/door-in-de-navo-te-blijven-wordt-europa-straks-in-een-wereldoorlog-meegesleurd-a4924308?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=bluesky&utm_term=20260403&gift_token=4924308%7E1775974722%7EtrOzbjrSRpSn70EyY_7u2A%7EPb7Z6Bdeo942_bu0UGYQjhJMF6A6EQinwxB0R1IwM3A

It may even have made Trump's anger worse. After praising the illegal attacks on Iran (Rutte) or showing 'understanding' (most EU countries, incl. The Netherlands), not responding to his call for support on the mess he created annoys him even more.

Ukraine slows enemy advances, liberates land, drains Russia’s war chest.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/3/ukraine-slows-enemy-advances-liberates-land-drains-russias-war-chest

Climate bills are coming in. Dutch PBL Institute estimates drought-induced damage to the foundations of 425,000 Dutch homes at €60 billion, between now and 2050. That's €2.5 billion/year then!
https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/03/30/pbl-maakt-risicos-klimaatverandering-concreet-misoogsten-verzakkende-huizen-en-een-einde-aan-de-vierdaagse-a4924181?gift_token=4924181%7E1775669289%7EtrOzbjrSRpSn70EyY_7u2A%7EzOMPPV8Qcwdpu3WtnbOVHKGu-knVeaYkqgOvcimaUmE

Global renewable power capacity crossed the 5 TW (that's 5,000,000,000,000 Watts) mark last year!
It grew by 15.5 % within one year, driven by solar PV and wind.
From IRENA:
https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2026/Apr/Near-700-GW-Surge-in-2025-Proves-Renewable-Energy-Resilience

Trump regime tells UK that closer ties with the EU would be a problem. Nicely in line with the Kremlin's goals.
https://www.cityam.com/us-ambassador-warns-against-eu-realignment/

A lot of fuss about gasoline prices in the Netherlands now. Favorite number in the media: the 'advisory price' set by the oil majors: €2.57 per litre today.
But: the average sales price in the country is €2.31.
At individual fuel stations, the lowest price is €2.14: https://www.anwb.nl/auto/brandstof/goedkoopste-tankstation

Russian producers are now saying they may declare force majeure on cargoes from key Baltic Sea ports after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out critical infrastructure this week.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Warns-of-Force-Majeure-on-Oil-Cargoes-After-Port-Disruptions.html