Notices by Tomi T Ahonen For Harris (tomiahonen@mastodon.world), page 10

On Trump's side, he HATES debates, and he hates debate prep. In PREVIOUS prep against Biden, at least his 'Biden stand-in' acted LIKE the kind elderly gentleman that President Biden is. Now in CURRENT debate prep, the Harris stand-in needs to be similarly aggressive in style. This pisses Trump off

Remember when Michelle Obama told us to "Do something!"

The post-it notes to bathroom stalls in ladies' rooms... is spreading (and working). If you are a woman, please consider having some of this style of notes in your handbag and when you visit a ladies' room, pls do likewise :-)

This Day In Denial

Tariffs by the US Government are ONLY paid by US consumers. A tariff is a tax. Every single economics professor, every student of economics knows this. Most competent high school students know this. A tariff is a tax. Trump wants more taxes on AMERICANS when proposes more tariffs

HAHA Told you Trump campaign is broke

This is one of biggest election year campaigning days, Labor Day. Kamala Harris & Tim Walz are on trail. But neither Donald Arlington Trump nor his reclining Upholster and alleged Vice Pence, VD Vance, sorry, JD Bench are campaigning. Isn't that weird?
https://mastodon.social/@GottaLaff/113068258998120306

This photograph is brought to you by AFT*, and please remember, if you need a fake audience to your event, contact AFT* to arrange your very own fake friends too, for a modest investment of $20,000 per appearance

* Actors For Trump

This day in Trump Confessions

On Sunday Trump went on Fox (#FixFox) and confessed he committed the Jan 6th crimes. He confessed that he led the insurrection, and insisted he had the right to try to overthrow the US government. This confession video will be played at his trial
https://beige.party/@Gorfram/113067716259710630

Perfect description of Donald Arlington Trump by Republicans now refusing to vote for him anymore: He is like a mattress with bed bugs. We have to burn it down & start over.

Oh, and coincidentally, his cemetery & alleged golf course in NJ is so shitty, it has repeatedly been infested with bedbugs.

My First Forecast Harris-Trump/1

So I've told you every 4 years, the polling before Conventions is meaningless. BUT after both Conventions, polling becomes useful if you know what you're doing

Today we have 7 (reliable) polls & enough data

Am ready to make my first prediction of this race

My First Forecast Harris-Trump/2

The US Presidential elections after both conventions tend to have one or other pattern. They tend to be like in 2004, W vs John Kerry, where the race gets ever more TIGHT

or they are like 2008, Obama vs McCain which becomes a blowout, as one side runs away with it

My First Forecast Harris-Trump/3

Today (after first 7 polls after both Conventions, averaged) Kamala Harris has a 4 percentage point lead over Donald Arlington Trump

That's a BIG lead. It IS possible to gain 4 points in 9 weeks, but Trump would have to run a PERFECT campaign & Harris have bad luck

My First Forecast Harris-Trump/4

I have plugged all the variables we have - like campaign finance (Kamala Harris shattering records; Trump is broke), the campaign enthusiasm (crowds), the appeal of the Vice Presidents (JD Vance is worse than Sarah Palin to his ticket, Tim Walz is rare VP to HELP)

My First Forecast Harris-Trump/5

Thus my first official forecast of 2024 Harris-Trump races is, that Kamala Harris wins. This race currently has 4 percentage point lead. That lead will GROW in next 9 weeks, not diminish. There will be a wave victory, like Obama'08

Obama won by 7.3% (Biden by 4.5%)

As we consider near term 'numbers' ie the polling. Currently Brain Worms Jr has 3.4% left in his support because part of those pollsters still included him in the surveys. RFK Jr polling will go to zero. His support probably splits evenly into 3 groups: 1/3 to Trump, 1/3 to Harris, 1/3 to undecided

And OBVIOUSLY I do not want us to become complacent. We need to fight hard, not just to put Kamala Harris & Tim Walz into the White House, but to give them the Congress they deserve, the Democrats take the House back, and keep the Senate

We'll work hard for 66 days. We can sleep when we're dead

2024 CHANGE THREAD/5

When Kamala Harris tells voters that we are the underdog, in some ways she is correct. She lost the power of incumbency, and she picked up two problem areas - some voters will not vote for a woman, & some voters will not vote for a black candidate

This CHANGES the calculation

2024 CHANGE THREAD/6

That said, this election is tossed upside down, because while Kamala Harris abandoned incumbency, somehow the Republicans were that stupid, they renominated the LOSER of 2020, of a failed Presidency. Trump inherits all DAMAGE of a failed administration, to try to defend now

So to set up my first-ever forecast involving Kamala Harris and this changed election of 3024, out shortly today, I will first - as always - explain my reasoning. What is the basis of my forecast (as I do to all paid clients, and for all my forecasts of politics published on Twitter or here)

Again about my 'Threads'. If you did not know, I simulcast every Tweet on both Mastodon & Spoutible. I was an avid publisher of Threads on Twitter. I occasionally do Threads also here, but on Mastodon they are real Threads, on Spoutible they will be numbered Tweets so to not hide part of my content

Time to play America's fastest-growing Quiz Sensation:

RAT BINGO

Now that Jack Smith has shuffled his witnesses in his Superseding Indictment for Judge Chutkan in Trump criminal trial of Jan 6th crimes, who do we have as the witneses? Here are the top 12 rats: Pence, Meadows, Bannon..

So yes. I am the world's best forecaster. And I do not mean 'best forecaster in US politics' - not this little knitting club we have. I mean the WORLD'S best forecaster (bestselling author, 12 books etc). The PROFITS in one QUARTER of some of my clients are bigger than total US election spend 2024