Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   Tomi T Ahonen For Harris (tomiahonen@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 01-Sep-2024 09:07:29 JST Tomi T Ahonen For Harris

   My First Forecast Harris-Trump/1

   So I've told you every 4 years, the polling before Conventions is meaningless. BUT after both Conventions, polling becomes useful if you know what you're doing

   Today we have 7 (reliable) polls & enough data

   Am ready to make my first prediction of this race

   • Embed this notice
     Tomi T Ahonen For Harris (tomiahonen@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 01-Sep-2024 09:07:24 JST Tomi T Ahonen For Harris

     in reply to

     My First Forecast Harris-Trump/5

     Thus my first official forecast of 2024 Harris-Trump races is, that Kamala Harris wins. This race currently has 4 percentage point lead. That lead will GROW in next 9 weeks, not diminish. There will be a wave victory, like Obama'08

     Obama won by 7.3% (Biden by 4.5%)

   • Embed this notice
     Tomi T Ahonen For Harris (tomiahonen@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 01-Sep-2024 09:07:25 JST Tomi T Ahonen For Harris

     in reply to

     My First Forecast Harris-Trump/4

     I have plugged all the variables we have - like campaign finance (Kamala Harris shattering records; Trump is broke), the campaign enthusiasm (crowds), the appeal of the Vice Presidents (JD Vance is worse than Sarah Palin to his ticket, Tim Walz is rare VP to HELP)

     Bill repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     Tomi T Ahonen For Harris (tomiahonen@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 01-Sep-2024 09:07:26 JST Tomi T Ahonen For Harris

     in reply to

     My First Forecast Harris-Trump/3

     Today (after first 7 polls after both Conventions, averaged) Kamala Harris has a 4 percentage point lead over Donald Arlington Trump

     That's a BIG lead. It IS possible to gain 4 points in 9 weeks, but Trump would have to run a PERFECT campaign & Harris have bad luck

     Bill repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     Tomi T Ahonen For Harris (tomiahonen@mastodon.world)'s status on Sunday, 01-Sep-2024 09:07:28 JST Tomi T Ahonen For Harris

     in reply to

     My First Forecast Harris-Trump/2

     The US Presidential elections after both conventions tend to have one or other pattern. They tend to be like in 2004, W vs John Kerry, where the race gets ever more TIGHT

     or they are like 2008, Obama vs McCain which becomes a blowout, as one side runs away with it