Notices by Mastodon Migration (mastodonmigration@mastodon.online), page 7

"Red Waving" in PA? Listen to elections expert Simon Rosenberg:

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html

"About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has happened."

"The purpose is two-fold... To excite Trump’s base and discourage Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters, while also providing Trump with ammunition to say the election was rigged if he loses."

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@KamalaHarrisWin

"Red Waving" in PA (cont.)

“This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon — and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian.”

“More than 25 organizations are now involved in red wave 2024... Last week, they dropped 27 polls. This week it’s more. Ferocity of effort to make it look like Trump is winning clearly means they don’t think he is.”

@KamalaHarrisWin

Nate Silver is a schmuck.

Not going to link it, but Nate Silver is out there today flogging the change in polling averages attributable to a tsunami of new biased right wave polling (https://mastodon.online/@mastodonmigration/113296180909288759) as evidence of a "shift" toward Trump.

Silver is part of the MAGA noise machine and should be completely ignored.

@KamalaHarrisWin

"Red Wave Polling Tsunami"

Right now both the national and the swing state polls are loaded up with Red Wave polling. The net effect is to bring down Harris and make it appear even or in some cases Trump leading. This gives rise to dozens of articles about Trump's increasing strength, which is the purpose.

The best advice is to ignore the averages and look at only "high quality polls" which consistently have Harris up 4 to 6 nationally, and leading in the swing states.

@KamalaHarrisWin

Right now we are experiencing a tsunami of "Red Wave" polling.

About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has happened:

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html

These Trump biased polls, particularly focused in the swing states when added into the averages make it look like Trump is doing well when in reality he is losing.

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@KamalaHarrisWin

"Red Wave Polling Tsunami"

“The reason it matters... One, is it demobilizes [voters]. When we think we’re losing, we demobilize, our voters disengage. Money dries up... [same for them] if they think they’re losing... [Two] it is vital to Trump’s effort: If he tries to cheat and overturn the election results, he needs to have data showing that somehow he was winning the election... so if he loses, he can say we cheated.”

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@KamalaHarrisWin

VOTE TODAY!

Early voting has now begun in Arizona, California, Guam, Indiana, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming.

If you live in any of these states, Vote today! If you know anyone that does give them a call.

Early voting is the best thing someone can do right now to help win this.

@KamalaHarrisWin

So, Leon's free Starlink to hurricane victims is a con.🤦♂️

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-free-starlink-for-hurricane-helene-victims-will-cost-at-least-400-2000509345

"Upon inspection, the offer of a free month of Starlink service seems to be the type of deal you might give to any new customer."

As Elon Musk likes to do whenever disaster hits somewhere in the world, Hurricane Helene was another opportunity to show off his generosity and make himself part of the news... But the catch is that it’s really not free at all... not much more than a glorified new-customer promotion."

More on @KamalaHarrisWin

Please be patient. Once you follow the group it may take a few hours for to be approved. That's to keep out folks who might abuse posting to the group.

Wait, you don't want all that traffic in your home feed? Simply make an "Election 2024" list, add the group (and any other accounts) to the list and in the list settings toggle "Hide these posts from home". Then just click on the list for all your Election 2024 stuff.

It's a great community. Hope you join us.

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So, do you folks know about @KamalaHarrisWin?

It's a really great Mastodon group where you can keep up to date on all things related to the Harris/Walz campaign and the 2024 election.

Just follow the group @KamalaHarrisWin, and everything posted there will go into your timeline.

You can also post to the group simply by adding the mention:

@KamalaHarrisWin [@] newsmast.social

See below for more info and a suggestion about how to keep your home feed uncluttered.

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#HarrisWalz2024

As Milton bears down on Florida, Trump and his cohorts do everything they can to spread misinformation and complicate emergency preparedness and response efforts.

Make no mistake, people, many people, may well die because of this insane interference.

The incomparable @wdlindsy provides this excellent compendium of information on this crisis within a crisis.

https://toad.social/@wdlindsy/113272071873928008

Early Voting - October 8

As of today this is how early voting looks. The way to read this is; as of 29 days before each election this is how many early votes have been recorded.

One of the ways we win this election is getting our votes in early. Early voting enables campaigns to focus on lower propensity voters which means more votes! It also creates a positive narrative and a virtuous cycle drawing more people onto the winning team.

Source: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D

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@KamalaHarrisWin

A few things to notice.

1. Our early voting from a percentage standpoint continues to outpace them by almost 2:1!

2. Early voting has now begun in Arizona, California, Guam, Indiana, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming.

3. Help make blue wave early voting a media narrative. If you live in an EV state, VOTE TODAY!

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@KamalaHarrisWin

Vote on Day 1 - ARIZONA

Early voting starts this week in Arizona!

1. Make sure you are registered TODAY! Tomorrow Oct. 7 is the voter registration deadline.

You can register to vote online (https://servicearizona.com/VoterRegistration/selectLanguage) if you have an Arizona driver's license or state ID. Otherwise, you'll need to register with a paper voter registration form. You can return the form to your county recorder by mail or drop it off. (source: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/01/arizona-early-voting-begins-oct-9/75462406007/)

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@KamalaHarrisWin

#EarlyVoting

Vote on Day 1 - ARIZONA (2)

2. If you are not sure if you are registered you can check here: My.Arizona.Vote (https://my.arizona.vote/WhereToVote.aspx?s=individual)

3. If you are a registered voter and you are on the Active Early Voting List, you will automatically be sent a ballot in the mail to vote in the general election. Early voting begins Oct. 9 when ballots are mailed to voters on the Active Early Voting List.

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@KamalaHarrisWin

#EarlyVoting

@KamalaHarrisWin

More on Vote on Day 1 strategy:

- Extra time to do GOTV allows us target more low propensity voters, and this increases our turnout and helps us win.

- A heavy early turnout leads to stories about “hey everyone is voting” putting social pressure on people to go vote, which increases turnout.

- It demoralizes the opposition and leads them to be less likely to vote.

- Makes it far harder for the Republicans to cheat, disrupt or contest the election.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/our-july-plans-voting-on-day-1-dems?utm_source=publication-search

Win this in October!

Vote On Day 1! It's one way you can really help win this thing! It builds momentum and gets you off GOTV rolls, so campaigns can target crucial lower propensity voters.

Early and/or In-Person Absentee voting has begun in Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont and Virginia.

Next week voting begins in California, Guam, Indiana, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio and Wyoming.

Source: https://www.usvotefoundation.org/early-voting-dates

@KamalaHarrisWin

Been having this weird experience of observing Threads users increasingly frustrated by their new chosen overlord. It's like watching from behind one-way glass. Wish them well and would like to help out, but they are trapped inside and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do about that other than to join them inside, which is, of course, absurd.

The fact that many corporate media pundits are saying that J D Vance won the debate just shows how untethered to principles of truth and honesty the news media has become.

@lovelylovely

And it's not just Rasmussen. There are a whole bunch of right wing polls that pull down the averages. Particularly active in the swing states. Don't believe polling averages.

Simon Rosenberg has a good piece on this here about halfway through the article:

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/harriss-economic-speech-and-ruhle

Start here... "A general reminder that there remains an awful lot of right-aligned polling in the polling averages, and folks should continue to be skeptical, given what happened in 2022...