Notices by Ravi Nayyar (ravirockks@infosec.exchange), page 2

From an excellent piece by James Corera and Jakub Janda:

'Once could be an accident, and twice might be a coincidence. But three instances look like a trend that we shouldn’t ignore or tolerate, especially since we know malign actors like Beijing and Moscow also have the capability to disrupt our critical infrastructure through prepositioned malware.

'Since China has persistently breached the same convention in the South China Sea, its disregard for the interests of other countries in the Yi Peng 3 case comes as no surprise.

'A refusal to comply with international investigative norms also encourages other states to act similarly.

'These incidents show how the Russia-China axis is increasingly working in sync to the peril of the rules-based liberal order'.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/baltic-subsea-sabotage-china-gets-away-with-non-cooperation/

'About 40 drone-equipped U.S. Marines have been sent to Finland to join NATO’s Baltic Sentry effort to protect undersea cables in the wake of several instances of suspected sabotage ...

'... the first commitment of American troops [to the initiative].

'The Marines will use hand-launched RQ-20 Puma surveillance drones ...

'This is also a great opportunity for the Marines to hone their cold weather skills. The Arctic is a focus of NATO and the U.S. ...

'Having Marines deployed on this mission fits into their new doctrine of positioning small units in littoral areas inside an enemy’s weapons engagement zone (WEZ), though that has been largely focused on the Pacific'.

Good stuff.
https://www.twz.com/sea/drone-equipped-u-s-marines-now-helping-protect-baltic-se-submarine-cables

On the other hand.
https://therecord.media/sweden-pm-on-suspected-russian-cable-breaks-not-an-accident

'... there is increasing confidence among their governments that the incidents were accidental and not directed by the Kremlin. [Leaks.]

'... no spike in the number of cable faults proportional to an increase in maritime traffic in the region [due to sanctions on Russia]. [Leaks.]

'... they had been briefed that sometimes incompetent ship-masters simply don’t want to go through the bother of arguing with the crew to trek out to the bow of the vessel in inclement weather to hoist the anchor. [Leaks. Really?]

'These anchors are not designed to simply “hold fast on the seabed,” explained the ICPC, which notes that in rough weather the vessel will move with the anchor ... seven egregious examples including one in 2008 when a ship dragged its anchor for around 180 miles, damaging six submarine cables'.
https://therecord.media/european-officials-baltic-sea-cable-breaks-accidental

Presenting Edition 2(2) of my cyber x geoeconomics x resilience newsletter, Circum Cyberes.

Plenty in here, from cyber to physical to geoeconomics to intelligence to military to DIB'y stuff.

Dive in, tell me what you make of my takes and give us a subscribe!
https://open.substack.com/pub/atechnolegalupdate/p/circum-cyberes-22?r=8snts&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

@patrickcmiller GOOD.

Well, I hope they implement this.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_793

Florence Gaub nailed it at Raisina:

'... the United States could not sustain a two-front war [against Russia and China] ... Europeans have a critical security vulnerability that's going to get worse over time if we're not acting now ... We're not doing this for Donald Trump. We're doing this because we have to do it ... perhaps that's the blessing in disguise of President Trump, is that he forces European publics to accept that this [mil-spending] is no longer something you can have but it's something that you have to have ... not spending enough on defense to be able to actually sustain [NATO] Article V obligations, that's also undermining it [Article V]. So, I think without wanting to defend the White House, I think, in general, transatlantic commitment relies on both words and tools'.
https://youtu.be/KyhijmN5hks

In its defence white paper, the EU says it will do something about the, in effect, starving of its DIB SMEs of private capital.

Says it will issue a clarification in the context of its ESG regs: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_793

'Yet a debate is now under way on repealing the [French] change [to the retirement age], under pressure from unions and the opposition — even as ministers discuss targets for raising the defence budget that would dwarf the pension savings.

'Italy, for example, has seen its public debt to GDP rise from 31 per cent in the 1960s to 137 per cent in 2024, according to European Commission data.

'France and the UK also have public debt exceeding the size of the economy, along with large budget deficits. The EU now spends about 2 per cent of GDP on interest payments. Italy’s figure is double that'.

If the Europeans spend the lion's share of forecast materiel bonanza on _their own_ DIBs, that would have massive local multiplier effects in light of the number of industries a DIB plugs into.
https://archive.md/mKpze

Great analysis by Perun of how Europe can/can't rearm, including in the context of the materiel relationship with the Yanks.

Some bits that stuck out for me:
- The importance of EU countries reforming their security clearances regime to enable skilled personnel to get to work quicker;
- The need for a grand bargain between the EU countries and DIB firms (like the WWII one in America) to (re)shape corporate incentives in line with the EU's interest in rearmament;
- The importance of EU states not going after blingy platforms such that they neglect the basics that sustain units (eg uniforms, logistics platforms);
- The EU's push for DIB indigenisation being an industrial strategy problem - if it wants to decouple materiel'ly from the US, no point buying tons of stuff subject to the US FDPR.
https://youtu.be/I0AOusajGsU

'When US foreign policy abruptly changes ... contractors, spare parts and badly needed software updates suddenly disappear. Within weeks, more than half the aircraft are grounded [in Afghanistan].

'... many European governments are feeling buyers’ remorse for decades of US arms purchases ... [But little/no remorse re economic dependence on the CCP.]

'It is not as simple as a kill switch ... Most European militaries depend heavily on the US for communications support, for electronic warfare support, and for ammunition resupply in any serious conflict.

'The plane [F-35] relies on continuous updates and maintenance support from the US through its Autonomic Logistics Information System — which is to be replaced by a successor programme known as Odin, the Operational Data Integrated Network.

'... no US ally has Washington’s level of access to the source code for the system [F-35]. [Israel is perhaps the closest to an example of autonomy with their arrangement for their Adirs.]

'... Reaper drone ... relies on US-provided satellite communication links and software support. Italy and France needed a lengthy US permission process to equip the drones with missiles.

'US defence companies have long used the implicit security guarantee of Washington’s favour as a marketing tool for their bigger-ticket items such as fighter planes'.
https://archive.md/GCWGk

Critical point that, if the non-US NATO members want to defend the continent alone, they'll need to stitch _everyone's_ patchwork of systems/platforms together, versus existing reliance on cohesive, integrated US military/intel capabilities.
https://youtu.be/7giYIisLuaA

'Europe’s defence companies, spread across different countries and reliant on small national orders, lack the scale required to compete with their American counterparts.

'Europe must allow for major consolidation in its defence industry ... the European Investment Bank must change its [ESG] guidelines to allow it to lend more to the sector. You can forget about funding the green transition if Russian forces are marching on Tallinn while America looks on. [BINGO!]

'An increase in defence investment will mean less money for social spending. The deployment of men and women in uniform must be treated as the potentially life-and-death decision it is. But we do not have time to waste on indecision'.
https://archive.md/unXhP

'Many European countries would struggle to produce one combat-capable brigade each ... any deployment [to Ukraine] would need significant American support not only in the form of specific “enablers” ... but also the promise of back-up should Russia attack.

'Meeting NATO’s existing war plans—with America present—would require Europe to spend 3% of GDP on defence ... making good American shortfalls would require a figure well above 4% ...

'... European armies struggle to recruit enough people even at their current sizes.

'Only some air forces, like those of Sweden, have maintained pilot proficiency for demanding high-intensity aerial warfare.

'But Britain, he says, would probably be incapable of running a complex air operation on the same scale and intensity as that of Israel’s air war in Gaza and Lebanon.

'Europe needs America for rocket artillery, longer-range air defence and stealthy aircraft. Even for simpler weapons ... European countries have turned to Brazil, Israel and South Korea for armoured vehicles and artillery shells.

'[British Storm Shadow needs] American geospatial data for effective targeting. Britain would have to spend billions to buy replacement images ... or turn to France ...

'[UK] leases the [nuclear] missiles from America ... American co-operation for components like the re-entry vehicle which houses the warhead'.
https://archive.md/3J7Yw

'When deployed on a multinational exercise the army is unable to communicate with its Nato counterparts without the US providing communications equipment ...

'The only Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) supply ship, Fort Victoria, is undergoing maintenance in Liverpool until the end of the year. Two similar vessels were sold to Egypt and replacements are not due until 2031.

'While the Royal Navy has two aircraft carriers, it has relied upon US F-35 jets to fly off them in the past because the UK has been slow to order its own F-35s.

'Although the UK has six destroyers only two of them are currently operational, he said, and are unable to defeat such complex threats [PRC ballistic missiles].

'Britain is spending millions of pounds a year to send pilots overseas for training because the RAF does not have enough fast-jet training aircraft available.

The UK PM has the right idea in spending less on ODA and more on defence. Also, the concerns expressed by sources here are the same expressed by a chunk of Indian DIB Twitter re the Indian MoD/military sacrificing purely indigenous capability development for foreign gear (eg the foreshadowed Stryker deal neglecting indigenous WhAPs, a superior platform for use along the LAC).
https://archive.md/a6TbP

On the reading list.
https://commission.europa.eu/document/5bb2881f-9e29-42f2-8b77-8739b19d047c_en

'Donald Tusk, prime minister of Poland, last week said his country was preparing “large-scale military training for every adult male”.

'Germany has not gone that far. Top officials from the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, the two parties likely to form the next government, have ruled out a revival of traditional conscription. Merz favours a year of national service that would offer military and non-military options.

'Besch said nations including Germany lacked that deep trust and the shared understanding of threat between citizens and government that had been forged in places such as Finland, which is famed for its decades-long focus on preparedness for an attack from Russia.

'Since Russia’s full-scale Ukraine invasion, Germany has had a steep rise in the number of conscientious objectors (including both regular soldiers and part-time reservists)'.
https://archive.md/1Ovui

'We now know that British output shrank in January ... not enough growth, so not enough fiscal revenue, so not enough defence spending, at least without sacrifices elsewhere, for which there is not enough public support.

'The Spanish prime minister won’t cut a “single cent” of social spending ... The willingness of citizens to forgo private consumption or welfare for defence is untested, at best ... A consensus for more defence spending is worth only so much without a consensus for actually deploying force.

'Bar Poland, the countries on the continent that spend most on defence as a share of income, such as Latvia, are among the smallest.

'We don’t know what European citizens are willing to give up for rearmament. We know even less which ones will bear those arms, where'.

What's one of Europe's nicknames, 'The Empire of Values', right?
https://archive.md/YIQ5C

'Lizzie Jones of Supacat, which manufactures military vehicles used by special forces and infantry [said] ... "We have absolutely felt the disinterest from banks to invest in the defence industry, which has been really hard to deal with over the last few years".

'The ESG agenda was really impacting small to medium enterprises where no banking was effectively taking place, and individuals couldn't go get a bank account because they were in the defence sector.

'The Financial Conduct Authority said last month that its ESG reporting rules contain nothing "that prevents investment or finance for defence companies", implying that divesting from or avoiding defence is a choice for institutions and their customers'.

The warped political economy of Western commerce.

Where investing in Chinese companies/ops until just after the pandemic was/remains fabulous, but funding your own DIBs remains 'unethical' because everyone (bar the Chinese/Russians/Iranians/North Koreans/proxies) must be 'anti-war'.
https://news.sky.com/story/defence-firms-held-back-by-uk-ethical-banking-standards-industry-says-13332109