Notices by Rod Hilton (rodhilton@mastodon.social), page 3

So who got fired for playing the song from the movie about the boat that sinks at the Montana Trump rally?

I once again want to reiterate, nationally RFK is polling at 3.8%. In Florida, however, RFK has been polling at closer to 6%.

In 2020, 77% of Florida's 14,565,738 registered voters turned out, roughly 11,215,619 people.

In that election, Gary Johnson (who had previously pulled 2.2% of the vote away from Trump, resulting in a 49% win) was not the Libertarian nom, and Jorgensen only pulled 0.64% of the vote, giving Trump a +3% win.

RFK voters pull voters away from Trump more than from Harris.

If Democrats refuse to accept the narrative that Florida is too red to flip while Republicans continue to believe it, and vote in numbers similar to previous elections while RFK stays on the ballot, Florida flips blue.

And this does not even factor in that both abortion access and cannabis are on the ballot this election. And it doesn't even factor the level of excitement for Harris. And it doesn't even factor in Trump's waning popularity. It's literally just the numbers.

For the exact reason that so many democrats feel like "Florida is too red to flip", Republicans who feel like Florida is a safe red may feel safe voting for RFK.

If he pulls ~6% of the vote and Florida has another 77% turnout, that's 6% of 10,341,570, which is 620,494 RFK votes.

If that split is 60% Trump voters and 40% Harris voters, that means 372,296 votes Trump doesn't get.

Trump won the state in 2020 by 371,686 votes.

The way that JD Vance - the guy Elon Musk personally supported being on the Republican ticket - has been effectively destroyed by a funny misinformation shitpost on Musk's own web site after allowing misinformation to spread on it in the name of "comedy is now legal", is precisely how the final episode of the TV miniseries about the downfall of Twitter should end.

Twitter is over, everyone can leave the site now because there's simply no way to top this. Whatever the game was, it's been beaten.

Honestly at this point just sell a red cap that says "Make America Normal Again" in the Kamala shop and see what happens.

We're taking back the flag and camo, make red hats okay to wear too.

A whole bunch of Biden staffers endorse Trump.

No just kidding, it's the opposite. Can you imagine?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/04/trump-white-house-kamala-harris-election.html

I've seen some criticism that Harris hasn't sat down for a real interview yet. Honestly, I've been thinking about it and I struggle to think of a single time a sit-down interview helped. Nobody watches them in full, and the next day the clipped up snippets from when they said not-great things circulate. Nobody ever shares "what a great answer" clips.

I'd say fuck that. Rallies and town halls, take questions from regular people and that's it. Spend. the 100 days wisely.

Still kind of floored that in the span of one week we as a nation went from "this photograph is going to be in the history books" to "oh yeah I forgot someone tried to shoot him, whatever happened with that?"

"We're Not Going Back" is such a dynamite slogan for 2024. Works on multiple levels, perfect antidote to the regressive-coded MAGA. Please run with this instead of "Let's Win This"

"But she's a cop!"

Yeah they're all cops, did you skip civics class?

Legislative - makes laws
Judicial - interprets laws
Executive - enforces laws

Everyone we vote on is a cop, what the shit did you think voting was?

You're picking who you trust more to grant special powers to form laws that will bind you. That's why we vote on the person, so we have a say in process to prevent tyranny.

Like I'm sorry but was the President being the "Commander in Chief" not a giveaway on this?

Grow up.

Elon: Trump, pick this weirdo idiot as VP and I'll give you $45m/mo.

Trump: Done.

<1 week later>

Trump: Hey wait this guy sucks

Elon: lol yeah, nevermind on the $45m though.

Lol what a loser, he knows he's about to waste $180m, they see the writing on the wall.

https://fortune.com/2024/07/23/elon-musk-backs-down-from-45-million-a-month-pledge-to-trump-says-he-doesnt-subscribe-to-cult-of-personality/

"Can the democrats keep up this momentum for an election cycle!?"

Yeah actually. Easily. That's one of the great things about the timing, the GOP has to scramble to find a message because they can't repeat a lie for a year until it sticks. We only have to keep it up for a few months.

In the meantime:

August: DNC Boost
September: Second Debate Boost (if Trump chickens out this could be a town hall)
October: October Surprise
November: Election

Somewhere in here is the VP pick boost as well.

You'll notice there aren't any "is America ready for a black president?" articles and that's because all it took one was presidential election to answer that question definitively.

If for no other reason, vote for Kamala so that we never have to see another "is America ready for a woman president?" article again for the rest of our lives.

The RNC was the last preplanned televised event in front of moderates and undecideds where the Republicans had full message control. It was the final opportunity to be seen without democrats being on a stage to rebut.

And they spent the entire thing attacking Biden, who stepped down the weekend after it was over.

All that money, wasted. All that opportunity, wasted.

The timing wasn't bad, it was perfection.

Literally stepped down the instant it was too late to replace Trump. They locked in and immediately we played the trap card.

Seriously everyone who thinks Kamala was set up to fail needs to recognize how much this is going to disorient the Republican messaging machine.

They spent their entire convention saying old guys can't be president and now they're running the old guy. It's bliss.

This November, you have the power to make Elon Musk waste 180 million dollars.

It really shouldn't surprise me at this point but I am still stunned that the same people who said masks were uncomfortable and looked stupid and that I was in a cult for wearing one are walking around on television with maxi pads taped to the sides of their faces.

Democrats celebrating that Trump's RNC speech was so bad that he's dropping in polls like it gives Biden a chance, forgetting that there's also a DNC and Biden is going to give a speech too.