Notices by John Quiggin (johnquiggin@aus.social)

US is always presented as greatest military power, and that’s true as regards global reach of carrier battle groups.

But in terms of non-nuclear land war, Europe (EU+UK+Ukraine) has more troops, more tanks, more artillery shell production and massively more drone capacity than US.

Now Maduro is Trump’s problem, the opposition has been thrown under the bus and the regime is carrying on business as usual. Another decapitation strike is unlikely to work, and (as I’ve argued many times in the context of Taiwan) a seaborne invasion will fail.

On the face of it, the Venezuelan regime has played Trump for a sucker. The details are murky but it appears that now-acting president Rodriguez convinced Rubio that she would accept a US take-over and that the US was given the location of Maduro (and his wife).

2050 net zero off the agenda thanks to EV tax

https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/ev-tax-plan-could-punish-drivers

A "dog bites man" story from the #NYTimes. Apparently, most AI investment is taking place in rich countries. As opposed to investment in housing, car factories, coffee shops etc ? AI isn't creating the divide between Haves and Have-Nots, it's reflecting it.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/23/technology/ai-computing-global-divide.html

Thinking about the chance of a return to democracy in the US, I have stopped thinking in terms of Republicans vs Democrats. The Trump-Musk brawl and the beginning of “investigations” into Biden has crystallised two thoughts for me
1/3

The US Presidency is now a source of essentially unlimited wealth for its holder.
Conversely, being a domestic enemy of the US President (in particular, a hostile ex-president) now risks financial ruin and possibly much worse.
2/3

The train I'm in just crossed the border from Spain into France. No announcement and I expect no one else noticed the moment. Freedom to disregard borders is a huge boon to those who have it. Many don't and many more are losing it.

What do Republican voters want? Fascism https://substack.com/profile/129542333-john-quiggin/note/c-101031332?

"World leaders must cater to Trump’s vanity to get what they need."

This is a dopey conclusion, akin to saying that the way to get a 2-year old to behave is to give them sweets. Starmer and Macron did their best, and within days Vance was slagging them off

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/04/lessons-from-the-trump-zelensky-confrontation/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921
1/2

The only point of efforts to bring Trump on board with peace plans that don't involve surrender to Putin is to make it clear that Trump/Putin are responsible for the failure of those efforts
2/2

An important error in this piece, and in lots of estimates of the force required to stop Putin. Russia isn't "producing 1500 tanks a year". Most of that number are refurbished T-62s that may be up to 60 years old. Ukraine has already destroyed Russias front-line army

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/five-minutes-to-midnight-new-look-america-sets-clock-ticking-for-europe-20250228-p5lfu2.html

@fu More precisely, paused for 30 days.

@fu The announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Trump has folded on tariffs: pulling back in return for the most minimal face-saving "concessions". But the issue comes back in 30 days, by which time neighbours will be better prepared. And he's still promising tariffs for EU and UK.

If there is a strategy here, I'm not seeing it.

My comment on Dutton's proposal to revive the tax-deductible business lunch https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/22/dutton-may-think-voters-no-longer-care-about-good-government-but-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-free-lunch

@cstross "

Quite often, I think about posting something and decide I can't be bothered dealing with the reactions.For example, I'm generally opposed to political violence, revolution as well as war, but I don't say it as often as I should. And, I should admit that I am tempted by the urge for retribution against war ciminals and climate destroyers

Time spent on social media has come, in large part, at the expense of time spent watching TV

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/05/when-did-tv-watching-peak/561464/

Another 25GW in November and likely 20GW more in December for total of 230. Exports look to be over 300GW, for total sales of ~550GW, with plenty of unused capacity. Only China can save the planet now https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/24/WS676a1acaa310f1265a1d4975.html

Bernie Madoff's simple Ponzi scheme ran for at least as long as Bitcoin has operated, and would have lasted longer if not for the GFC. The market can stay irrational longer than you (or any short-seller) can stay solvent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff