@eschaton @bitsavers Good points. Here is another perspective.
For many, Excel took the place of 4GLs. People could get things done in an ad hoc way when they couldn't get IT attention/resources. These aren't programs in the way you or I think about them, but they fulfill a need. This happens continually in large and small businesses.
I believe that at a minimum LLMs will amplify the power of these non-programmers to write more “code” that would otherwise go unwritten. See MS Office Copilot.