Reminder: Trump announced his China tariffs on April 10th.
It takes 30 days for a container ship from Shenzhen to arrive on the US west coast, 45 days to the east coast.
The supply chain shock will therefore really get started around May 10th and intensify through the month, reaching its peak around the beginning of June, as factories fall idle, warehouses empty, truckers are laid off, and supermarket shelves become barren …
So China won't budge before the 10th.
Why would they?