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@jacob speaking for myself I feel like I have a long view of the industry where I can understand the sorts of cycles that it goes through, and can make broadly accurate long-term predictive statements. but understanding what *part* of the cycle we are in right now, how it differs from the previous iterations, when the next turn of the wheel is likely to happen (etc) does make that long-term understanding pretty worthless to anyone trying to decide what they should do *now*