@lain I've viewed the conflict in the lens of something like 3 for a long time.
It makes sense with the continual conflict -> agreement -> truce breaking, that's been going on since the end of the ussr. The state department just sees russia as a defeated power and so doesn't respect diplomacy.
I hadn't connevted it to current events like that though. I'm also a little skeptical that it's all theater, there's probably some truth to the rest of the answers as well giving it more nuance.