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I did some continuity testing and all seemed well after reseating the terminal block which I had half-dislodged while taking the cover off the controller box, disabling almost all the heating in the house for 2 days of 0C weather. 😂 So I decided to take a look at the other end of the wire at the thermistor in the bathroom.

As I was popping the plate with the thermistor out of the wall, I realized that an icy draft was howling through the junction box, directly onto the back of the thermistor...