To believe otherwise you have to believe that:
1. There a large number of eligible voters
2. Who are not disenfranchised
3. Who are not showing up even to vote for ballot issues they support or to cast a protest vote.
4. Who are not so racist and/or sexist that they refuse to vote for a Black woman.
5. That are not in an osmotic relationship with some other group of voters.
6. That are sufficiently informed to know the positions and won't be misled by talk of "death panels"
etc.