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I've shared the math so many times, and people are still confused about it.

Out of 100 Black men voters, ~80 vote Dem and ~20 vote GOP. This has been true for the past ~40 years.

If 20 of the Black Dem men say, "I'm never voting for Biden again!" Then:
* turnout drops by ~20%
* GOP share goes to ~25%

It looks like Trump is gaining and becoming more popular! But in reality, Biden is losing.

Switch Biden out for Harris, and you see things float back towards 80%.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/28/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/aarp-survey-00185978

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