"A curious thing. There’s a new rush of press stories reporting that Mar-a-Lago is suddenly a bundle of nerves as they see evidence they’re falling short in Pennsylvania. This is certainly why Trump is suddenly going berserk on social media, making freakshow claims that the race is being stolen in PA. We knew that. Meanwhile Trump is suddenly losing ground in betting markets, which for a couple of weeks have shown him to be a prohibitive favorite to return to the White House. This is all very nice to see. But I wouldn’t necessarily see it as some sign of momentum in Harris’s favor.
I do hear positive things from Democrats, to be clear — people who should be able to see the campaign big picture and have access to lots of campaign information. Let’s call it cautious optimism about the Blue Wall and the possibility of winning at least some of Biden’s 2020 southern-tier wins. But the case of what seems like some level of Trump freak out is slightly different. Trump world has been certain for a few weeks that Trump’s winning. There’s an overwhelming consensus about this on Wall Street. I think that’s a mix of standard GOP bluff, head-fake and just Republicans’ default belief that they’re going to win, whether they are or not."