New battery test, day 700: 2.84 volts, as I extend the X-axis another hundred days.
I now have enough data to posit that 2.85 volts is the 70% mark for battery exhaustion: old firmware hit it on day 300 and died on day 425; Ben's watch hit it at day 440 and died at day 622. By that math, I predict 292 days remain, for a death date around November 8th. Which means this little watch that could might just make it to its THIRD @hackaday Supercon on a single CR2016 coin cell.