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As pessimistic as it is ... I don't think I can rule out a #fediverse future 5 years from now ...

where AP/Fediverse is basically just mastodon + Threads + apps ... and a bunch of small-user crusty side projects and unmaintained corporate implementations.

I'm really not convinced that the "ideal" of the fediverse's rich ecosystem is being tended to well enough.

Realistically, multi-protocol clients, bringing in bsky/nostr etc may in time come to fulfill that ambition more than AP apps.