Embed Notice

@GottaLaff

#Elections2024
(2/n)

They talk about a so-called #PreferenceCascade with regard to opinion polls: people will often not tell their true feelings/preferences when interviewed. Until something outstanding happens
And then people change their opinion all at once.
This happened with #JoeBiden this week.
Looking at the betting market, the odds that he will quit went from 20% to over 80% after the debate.
Oh, and yes, these kinds of market are quite efficient.

I think Biden...