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    Eric Beckman (erbeckman@historians.social)'s status on Friday, 05-Jul-2024 08:37:28 JSTEric BeckmanEric Beckman
    in reply to
    • Kim Perales
    • FIAR Light

    Thank you @KimPerales

    @LightFIAR July numbers are not predictive: 1988, 2016 jump out as important counter examples. 2016 averages here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

    Ther last successful examples of a challenge to or replacement of an incumbent resulting in victory for the incumbent's party was 1948. See 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2020 (Lincoln project) as counter examples.
    #uspolitics #uspol

    In conversationabout 8 months ago from historians.socialpermalink

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    1. Domain not in remote thumbnail source whitelist: fivethirtyeight.com
      National Polls | 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
      from https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/
      National polls for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
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