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@mattly I bought this book in the early 00's (I suppose after 2004, but probably not much after that)

https://www.amazon.com/Malicious-Cryptography-Cryptovirology-Adam-Young/dp/0764549758

In which the author pretty accurately predicts the "Encrypt your shit and make you pay for it" approach.

I don't know that I really grokked it all at the time (I was 17), but I suppose at least you could say someone was thinking about ransomware back 20 years ago at least.