Ironically Israel is one of the closest modern countries we have to an actual ethno-state.

If you're Jewish, Israel considers you a citizen, and while Judaism isn't precisely a race, it's also not something you can just quit.

I think it's too early to call this one. Clearly there is an incredibly huge number of Muslims who are prepared to die fighting Israel, but a lot of people tried to call RU/UA back in 2022 and ended up looking like fools 2 years later.