The reason that could happen is a consequence of one of the core problems that fedi doesn't solve: servers controlled by admins.
Hence we need even less centralisation of the levers of power, and increased choice and autonomy for users. I'm hopeful #p2p will do this and that 2024 will be the year we see the beginnings of that.
#Fedi was a step in the right direction but never going to solve these issues using traditional servers.