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I saw someone on a “collapse” forum ask:

“What do you think will be the first domino to fall?”

As in, collapse hasn’t started yet, but it will soon, so we should be on the look out.

Meanwhile, the state has utterly, totally disintegrated in places like Sudan and Haiti, which just happen to be around the same latitude, the part of the world that’s projected to become physically uninhabitable from temperature increases alone within this century.

All throughout that region there are coups, insurgencies, terrorism. Burkina Faso had back-to-back coups in 2023. The state barely exists in Central African Republic or South Sudan. Huge parts of Mexico are ruled by cartels and millions of Central Americans are fleeing north.

The first domino? The first?? It fell a while ago. The weakest states—the ones that were already environmentally marginal and devastated by colonialism—in the hottest zone have already collapsed. They’re gone. They’re not really coming back, are they? But they won’t be the last.