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The Optus outage was indeed iBGP, and it affected the underlying data routing across their network. That was visible in their Internet service. Have you seen any reports of AT&T fixed broadband having been affected? If it had anything to do with peering, that would also have been down. The fact that AT&T was urging affected customers to switch to "wi-fi calling" and that that was mostly working, would seem to indicate that there were not problems on the data network. That some "wi-fi calls" were not going through can be attributed, like the people complaining to T-Mobile and Verizon, to people trying to reach AT&T mobile customers.
Again, I don't yet have a theory that I believe holds water, I'm just trying to rule out things that appear to be contradicted by the facts as reported thus far.