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In 1988, anthropologist Joseph Tainter published a book called “The Collapse of Complex Societies.” In it, Tainter argues that societies collapse—experience a sudden, unplanned loss of complexity—not because of what we colloquially assume would be the causes: invasion, famine, plague, climate catastrophe, etc. Rather, Tainter argues that collapse happens when returns on complexity plateau and start to decline, and simplification becomes a cheaper option than yet more complexity.

Tainter posits the following:

1 . human societies are problem-solving organizations;

2. sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance;

3. increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita; and

4. investment in sociopolitical complexity as a problem-solving response often reaches a point of declining marginal returns.

In other words, it’s not the threat itself that causes collapse. All societies constantly face challenges and threats. Instead, collapse happens when societies get so complex that they have to invest more than they can afford just in maintaining their current level of complexity, much less additional complexity.

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https://archive.org/details/TheCollapseOfComplexSocieties/mode/1up