Objective To investigate whether COVID-19 infection was associated with increased risk for incident respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and associated diseases among young children that might have contributed to the 2022 surge of severe paediatric RSV cases in the USA.
Design This is a retrospective population-based cohort study. Five outcomes were examined, including overall RSV infection, positive lab test-confirmed RSV infection, clinically diagnosed RSV diseases, RSV-associated bronchiolitis and unspecified bronchiolitis. Risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI of the outcomes that occurred during the 2022 and 2021 RSV seasons were calculated by comparing propensity-score matched cohorts.
Setting Nationwide multicentre database of electronic health records (EHRs) of 61.4 million patients in the USA including 1.7 million children 0–5 years of age, which was accessed through TriNetX Analytics that provides web-based and secure access to patient EHR data from hospitals, primary care and specialty treatment providers.
Participants The study population consisted of 228 940 children of 0–5 years with no prior RSV infection who had medical encounters in October 2022. Findings were replicated in a separate study population of 370 919 children of 0–5 years with no prior RSV infection who had medical encounters in July 2021–August 2021 during a non-overlapping time period.
Results For the 2022 study population (average age 2.4 years, 46.8% girls, 61% white, 16% black), the risk for incident RSV infection during October 2022 – December 2022 was 6.40% for children with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 4.30% for the matched children without COVID-19 (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.55); and among children aged 0 – 1 year, the overall risk was 7.90% for those with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 5.64% for matched children without (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.62). For the 2021 study population (average age 2.2 years, 46% girls, 57% white, 20% black), the risk for incident RSV infection during July 2021 – December 2021 was 4.85% for children with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 3.68% for the matched children without COVID-19 (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.56); and 7.30% for children aged 0 – 1 year with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 4.98% for matched children without (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.82).
Conclusion COVID-19 was associated with a significantly increased risk for RSV infections among children aged 0–5 years in 2022. Similar findings were replicated for a study population of children aged 0–5 years in 2021. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 contributed to the 2022 surge of RSV cases in young children through the large buildup of COVID-19-infected children and the potential long-term adverse effects of COVID-19 on the immune and respiratory system.
All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as online supplemental information. This study used population-level aggregate and deidentified data generated by the TriNetX Platform. Due to data privacy, patient-level data were not used and cannot be shared.
Yaneer Bar-Yam
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