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Returning to my larger point about the two problems that are coming for Mastodon: I'm seeing a lot of people make a lot of assumptions about how well things are working, in terms of solving social problems, that are basically predicated on not knowing that these two problems are bearing down on us.

This puts me in the weird position of actually arguing against empiricism. I'm usually a big fan of "throw it against the wall and see if it sticks" experimentalism as a remedy for head in the clouds theorizing.

But this is really a situation in which foresight is desperately necessary.

It is simply not accurate to extrapolate the efficacy of various attempts to solve social problems on Mastodon based on how well they've worked so far.

When you're climbing an adoption curve, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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