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A thread on p(doom) from a fundamentalist Bayesian point of view: If you have read (and understood) De Finetti, you understand that in settings where you don't have repeatable experiments, you are not in a frequentist setting, so something like a "true, objective" probability does not exist. The only thing that exists are subjective degrees of belief, expressed by betting odds. It's clear that these odds are entangled with individuals utility function for money, but ...