@TheMadPirate No, China won't do it until they're sure they can do it without creating popular support for a war here. They're drilling "start on Friday night, have Taipei before Monday morning" so that it's already done by the time people start checking the news. Unlike Korea, we don't have anyone stationed there so there'd be no American-flag coffins, we don't have any formal treaties with Taiwan and officially we don't recognize them (recognizing them would piss off China), so if they take the capital before the public starts paying attention, there won't be any retaliation.