Okay, I've figured everything out.
Temporary workaround: running your nixos-rebuild commands with the --install-bootloader flag will make the build succeed.
Long-term solution: there's a PR that's been merged and should fix this, the fix just needs to move from staging to the main channel. You can track the progress here: https://nixpk.gs/pr-tracker.html?pr=235770
(I'm getting a 502 error from the link at the moment, but it worked a couple hours ago and'll probably work again soon)