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How likely is it that the state will succeed in accessing these private records? If they do, how likely is it that they'll persecute families.

People don't know.

But if they get it wrong, if they assume it'll be okay, and they're wrong? That would mean the end of their lives.

You can never know how bad a situation will get in advance. All you can do is look at how bad things are and how much worse they are and how quickly they've gotten worse.

Things have gotten SO bad, SO fast.