If you don't vote for your preferred candidate, they *are* unlikely to win.
"Strategic voting" isn't strategic, it does not get you the representation you want. It is negative voting, it chooses a candidate you do *not* want.
Picking the lesser of two evils is still picking evil.
And you can't vote for the leader unless you happen to live in their riding. You can only vote for your local candidate, so pick the one who will best represent you.