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Other predictions I’m happy to verbalize.

Notebooks (Jupyter, etc.) aren’t the future—making this concrete I predict the percentage of respondents to Stack Overflow’s annual dev survey who say they use code notebooks will stay approximately fixed for the next ten years, i.e., plus or minus 2.5% the 2022 level of 11.61% (2021 level: 12.63%; both all respondents).

In fact, nothing will unseat text editor-based coding in the next ten years except something like Darklang (https://darklang.com/ so, AST-level programming, i.e., the editor only allows you to ever input syntactically valid code). I assign a 10% chance of this happening (realistically 2-5% but I really want this to happen).

I ran out of steam but I do notice something important in how I think about predictions like this—they’re in terms of what masses of developers care about, the people making apps for you and me and our mums and dads. Those devs are my people and I’m done pretending that I have zero clue what they should focus on learning.